NFL Week 9 Trends & Angles

It was a rather nondescript Week 8 for our NFL Trends & Angles, although we still eked out a small profit going 5-4, 55.6 percent on a game-by-game basis. We had six angles last week with three of them having winning records, two of them losing and the other one splitting.

The favorites finished 8-7 in Week 8, leaving the chalk at 60-58-3, 50.1 percent ATS for the season as the books have done a great job as usual with neither side being profitable. Looking at totals, the ‘unders’ went 8-7 for the week but the ‘overs’ still have the lead this season at 64-57, 52.9 percent overall, producing just a miniscule profit at -110 odds.

Now we move onward and upward to Week 9, and those of you that have followed us in the past know that the majority of our angles will be contrarian in nature and not for the feint of heart, as many of them will point to live underdogs and live ‘unders’. Ironically our leading angle is again our only angle that points exclusively to favorites, but the rest of this week’s angles fit the usual ugly dog mode.

The records for all of our angles will only go back to 2005 going forward the rest of the year as that gives us a large enough sampling for full-season trends without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games less than ideal.

Finally, you will occasionally see angles that refer to Good Teams and/or Bad Teams. As a reminder, we are not using those terms subjectively, but rather, Good Teams are strictly defined as teams that have won at least 10 of their last 16 games straight up and Bad Teams are defined as teams that have lost at least 10 of their last 16 games straight up.

We are again presenting six angles this week, although only three of them are carried over from last week, as we have dusted off three more angles we have not used in a while. So without further ado, here are our NFL Trends & Angles for Week 9, with all records being for the last nine seasons since 2005 plus the first eight weeks of this year.

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Play on any favorite coming off of a bye week (98-60-5, 62.0% ATS): This is one of the few angles we use that is not a contrarian one in nature, but the winning percentage over a nice sampling justifies us using it. NFL teams that have had an extra week of preparation time have had a nice advantage in recent years, and prep time aside, the added time off also oftentimes allows any injured players the teams may have some extra recovery time, which is an added bonus. Qualifiers: San Francisco -9 and New York Giants -3 (Monday).

Play on any road underdog coming off of a road loss (160-97-5, 62.3% ATS): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started  to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs, and this angle also adds in the motivation off wanting to bounce back after a loss. Qualifiers: Baltimore +2, Oakland +15, San Diego +2½, St. Louis +9 and Indianapolis +3 (Monday).

Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (202-142-6, 58.7% ATS): This one is similar to the previous angle, except that the team coming off of the road game in now facing a familiar conference foe, which lessens the travel effect since the team usually knows how to attack the foe and what to expect on defense, and it also does not matter if the team won or lost its previous road game. Qualifiers: Baltimore +2, San Diego +2½, St. Louis +9 and Washington +2.

Play on any Bad Team in division road games off of a straight up loss by more than seven points (60-40-2, 60.0% ATS): This is an angle that nicely combines several little angles that have been working well for contrarians. For starters, three reasons why the pubic tend to shy away from these teams thus allowing the oddsmakers to shade the line are that, well, they are Bad Teams to begin with, they are probably in bad current form coming off of a loss and they are now on the road, where the public hardly ever backs losing teams. But on the flip side, dregs at the professional level are capable of improvement taking on familiar division foes. Qualifier: St. Louis +9.

Play on any Bad Team as a road underdog of +7½ or more that was an underdog in each of its last four games (63-45-1, 58.3% ATS): Playing this angle may take some courage as it often points you to the worst teams in the league, and as rather big road underdogs no less! But that is precisely the point as these teams often offer great value with no novice bettors wanting any part of them, as evidenced by the excellent winning percentage over a sampling of over 100 games. Qualifiers: Jacksonville +12½, Oakland +15 and St. Louis +9.

Play against any home team coming off of two or more road losses (96-69-7, 58.2% ATS): Many times, teams coming off of consecutive road losses but returning home are actually overvalued because some people expect them to suddenly play better in front of their home fans. However, these are often bad teams that don’t enjoy as much of a home field advantage anyway, and this angle becomes even more effective as the season goes along when those consecutive losses have greater affect on a team’s playoff chances. Qualifier: Indianapolis +3 vs. New York Giants (Monday).

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