NFL Trends & Angles – Week 10

Week 9 was a pretty good one for our NFL Trends & Angles as we went 8-5, 61.5 percent ATS on a game-by-game basis. We presented six angles and three of them had winning records going a cumulative 5-0 ATS, while two had losing records and the other one split.

It was also a perfect split for favorites and underdogs in Week 9 with each side finishing 6-6-1 ATS, thus leaving the chalk at 66-64-4, 50.7 percent ATS for the season as the books have done a great job as usual with neither side being profitable. Looking at totals, the ‘overs’ went 7-5-1 for the week, slightly extending their lead for the season to 71-62, 53.4 percent overall, producing a slight profit at -110 odds.

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We now move on to Week 10, and those of you that have followed us in the past know that the majority of our angles will be contrarian in nature and not for the feint of heart, as many of them will point to live underdogs and live ‘unders’. Ironically we are again leading off with one of our very few angles that actually points exclusively to favorites, but the rest of this week’s angles fit our usual ugly mode for the most part.

The records for all of our angles will only go back to 2005 going forward the rest of the year as that gives us a large enough sampling for full-season trends without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games less than ideal.

Finally, you will occasionally see angles that refer to Good Teams and/or Bad Teams. As a reminder, we are not using those terms subjectively, but rather, Good Teams are strictly defined as teams that have won at least 10 of their last 16 games straight up and Bad Teams are defined as teams that have lost at least 10 of their last 16 games straight up.

Once again we are presenting six angles this week, with four of them being carried over from last week and two other ones that have not had qualifying plays lately now being resurrected. So without further ado, here are our NFL Trends & Angles for Week 10, with all records being for the last nine seasons since 2005 plus the first nine weeks of this year.

Please note that there is currently no line on the Dallas vs. Jacksonville game in London. Thus that game is not included in any angles.

Play on any favorite coming off of a bye week (98-61-5, 61.6% ATS): This is one of the few angles we use that is not a contrarian one in nature, but the winning percentage over a nice sampling justifies us using it. NFL teams that have had an extra week of preparation time have had a nice advantage in recent years, and prep time aside, the added time off also oftentimes allows any injured players the teams may have some extra recovery time, which is an added bonus. Qualifiers: Atlanta -1, Detroit -2½ and Green Bay -7.

Play against any favorite of -7½ or more that lost straight up as a favorite in its last game (66-34, 66.0% ATS):Teams that are favored after losing as favorites in their previous game are often overrated teams, and this becomes especially true if they are favored by more than a touchdown the following week, as you can see by the record of this angle with a sampling of over 100 decisions. Qualifier: Raiders +11½ vs. Denver.

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Play on any road underdog coming off of a road loss (162-99-5, 62.1% ATS): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs, and this angle also adds in the motivation off wanting to bounce back after a loss. Qualifier: Chicago +7.

Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (203-144-6, 58.5% ATS): This one is similar to the previous angle, except that the team coming off of the road game in now facing a familiar conference foe, which lessens the travel effect since the team usually knows how to attack the foe and what to expect on defense, and it also does not matter if the team won or lost its previous road game. Qualifiers: Chicago +7 and St. Louis +7.

Bet on any team that has lost at least four straight games ATS (94-64-5, 59.5% ATS): This is a contrarian angle that looks for potentially undervalued teams that most bettors tend to avoid, as they do not like betting on teams on decided ATS losing streaks.. This angle has worked even better if the team on the ATS losing streak is now on the road (52-30-1, 63.4 percent), although we would like to see about 20 more results before presenting that one as a stand-alone angle. Home teams have still been profitable at 42-34-4, 55.3 percent ATS. Qualifier: Seattle -9.

Play against any home team coming off of two or more road losses (99-71-7, 58.2% ATS): Many times, teams coming off of consecutive road losses but returning home are actually overvalued because some people expect them to suddenly play better in front of their home fans. However, these are often bad teams that don’t enjoy as much of a home field advantage anyway, and this angle becomes even more effective as the season goes along when those consecutive losses have greater affect on a team’s playoff chances. Qualifiers: Tennessee +10 vs. Baltimore and Denver -11½ vs. Oakland.

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