Week 11 NFL Trends & Angles

Week 10 was another awful week for the sportsbooks with favorites and ‘overs’ doing so well, and when the general public does that well, our NFL Trends & Angles usually suffer. However that was not the case as although it was not a winning week, we feel rather fortunate to have gone 5-5 ATS on a game-by-game basis, and as fate would have it all five of the winning plays were favorites!

By the end of Week 10, the favorites finished 9-4 ATS and the chalk is now 75-68-4, 52.5 percent ATS for the season, which would produce just a minuscule profit at -110 odds but a bit more at reduced-juice shops. As for the ‘overs’, they went 7-6 for the week but 5-0 beginning with the 4:00 ET games Sunday, making chasers very happy especially in the prime time games, and ‘overs’ are now 78-68, 53.4 percent overall for the season.


We now move on to Week 11, and despite last week’s results, those of you that have followed us in the past know that the majority of our angles will be contrarian in nature and not for the feint of heart, as many of them will point to live underdogs and live ‘unders’.

As Irony would have it though, we are again leading off with one of our very few angles that actually points exclusively to favorites, but the rest of this week’s angles fit our usual ugly mode for the most part. With that being said, even those contrarian angles point to some favorites this week.

The records for all of our angles will only go back to 2005 going forward the rest of the year as that gives us a large enough sampling for full-season trends without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games less than ideal.

Finally, you will occasionally see angles that refer to Good Teams and/or Bad Teams. As a reminder, we are not using those terms subjectively, but rather, Good Teams are strictly defined as teams that have won at least 10 of their last 16 games straight up and Bad Teams are defined as teams that have lost at least 10 of their last 16 games straight up.

Once again we are presenting six angles this week, with four of them being carried over from last week as well as two other ones that have been dormant lately but finally have qualifying plays again this week. So without further ado, here are our NFL Trends & Angles for Week 11, with all records being for the last nine seasons since 2005 plus the first 10 weeks of this year.

Play on any favorite coming off of a bye week (101-62-5, 62.0% ATS): This is one of the few angles we use that is not a contrarian one in nature, but the winning percentage over a nice sampling justifies us using it. NFL teams that have had an extra week of preparation time have had a nice advantage in recent years, and prep time aside, the added time off also oftentimes allows any injured players the teams may have some extra recovery time, which is an added bonus. Qualifiers: Indianapolis -2½, San Diego -10 and Washington -7.

Bet on any team that has lost at least four straight games ATS (95-64-5, 59.7% ATS): This is a contrarian angle that looks for potentially undervalued teams that most bettors tend to avoid, as they do not like betting on teams on decided ATS losing streaks.. This angle has worked even better if the team on the ATS losing streak is now on the road (52-30-1, 63.4 percent), although we would like to see about 20 more results before presenting that one as a stand-alone angle. Home teams have still been profitable at 43-34-4, 55.8 percent ATS. Qualifiers: New York Giants +4½ and San Diego -10.

Play on any team that lost its last game straight up by more than 28 points (85-58-5, 59.4% ATS): This angle combines two concepts, as professional teams in any sport do not like to get embarrassed and oftentimes bounce back strong in their next game, and also bettors tend to shy away from these teams, often leading to added line value. Qualifiers: Chicago -3½ and San Diego -10.

Play on any team that failed to cover its last game by more than 25 points (86-60-4, 58.9% ATS): The reasoning behind this angle is exactly the same as the previous angle, i.e., it combines the concepts of teams wanting to bounce back from a bad effort and bettors not wanting to bet on teams that just played so poorly. The difference is that this angle measures the previous margin ATS instead of straight up.  Qualifier: Chicago -3½, Cincinnati +7 and San Diego -10.

Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (203-146-6, 58.2% ATS): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs, and this angle also adds in the familiarity off facing a conference foe. Qualifier: Atlanta +1½.


Play against any home team coming off of two or more road losses (100-72-7, 58.1% ATS): Many times, teams coming off of consecutive road losses but returning home are actually overvalued because some people expect them to suddenly play better in front of their home fans. However, these are often bad teams that don’t enjoy as much of a home field advantage anyway, and this angle becomes even more effective as the season goes along when those consecutive losses have greater affect on a team’s playoff chances. Qualifiers: Minnesota +3½ at Chicago and Oakland +10 at San Diego.