NFL Trends & Angles – Week 12

Week 11 was a very nice week for underdogs around the NFL, which would normally translate to a nice week for our NFL Trends & Angles. Unfortunately our angles actually pointed to more favorites than usual last week though and we only ended up doing the splits as two of our angles had winning weeks, two had losing weeks and two of them split.

By the end of Week 11, the underdogs finished 10-4 ATS and cut into the lead of the favorites overall this year. In fact, there is now practically no lead at all as the chalk is just 79-78-4 ATS for the season, so to the surprise of nobody, after all is said and done the linemakers have done an excellent job with neither side producing a profit.

Similarly it was also a good week for the ‘unders’ as they too went 10-4, leaving the ‘overs’ at 82-78, 51.3 percent for the year, again providing no edges either way.

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Now it is time to move on to Week 12, and despite last week’s anomaly, those of you that have followed us in the past know that the majority of our angles will be contrarian in nature and not for the feint of heart, as many of them will point to live underdogs and live ‘unders’.

One notable exception is our leading angle, which is one of our very few angles that actually points exclusively to favorites, but the rest of this week’s angles fit our usual ugly mode for the most part. As an aside, the leading angle will say farewell next week with the end of this season’s bye weeks.

The records for all of our angles will only go back to 2005 going forward the rest of the year as that gives us a large enough sampling for full-season trends without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games less than ideal.

Finally, you will occasionally see angles that refer to Good Teams and/or Bad Teams. As a reminder, we are not using those terms subjectively, but rather, Good Teams are strictly defined as teams that have won at least 10 of their last 16 games straight up and Bad Teams are defined as teams that have lost at least 10 of their last 16 games straight up.

We are once again presenting six angles this week, so without further ado, here are our NFL Trends & Angles for Week 12, with all records being for the last nine seasons since 2005 plus the first 11 weeks of this year.

Play on any favorite coming off of a bye week (101-65-5, 60.8% ATS): This is one of the few angles we use that is not a contrarian one in nature, but the winning percentage over a nice sampling justifies us using it. NFL teams that have had an extra week of preparation time have had a nice advantage in recent years, and prep time aside, the added time off also oftentimes allows any injured players the teams may have some extra recovery time, which is an added bonus. Qualifier: Dallas -3.

Play on any road underdog coming off of a road loss (162-100-5, 61.8% ATS): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs, and this angle also adds in the motivation off wanting to bounce back after a loss. Qualifier: Detroit +7.

Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (203-146-6, 58.2% ATS): This one is similar to the previous angle, except that the team coming off of the road game in now facing a familiar conference foe, which lessens the travel effect since the team usually knows how to attack the foe and what to expect on defense, and it also does not matter if the team won or lost its previous road game. Qualifiers: Cincinnati +1 and Tampa Bay +5.

Play on any team that lost its last game straight up by more than 28 points (86-59-5, 59.3% ATS): This angle combines two concepts, as professional teams in any sport do not like to get embarrassed and oftentimes bounce back strong in their next game, and also bettors tend to shy away from these teams, often leading to added line value. Qualifier:Philadelphia -11.

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Play on any team that failed to cover its last game by more than 25 points (88-61-4, 58.9% ATS): The reasoning behind this angle is exactly the same as the previous angle, i.e., it combines the concepts of teams wanting to bounce back from a bad effort and bettors not wanting to bet on teams that just played so poorly. The difference is that this angle measures the previous margin ATS instead of straight up. Qualifiers: Philadelphia -11 and Washington +9.

Bet on any team that has lost at least four straight games ATS (95-66-5, 59.0% ATS): This is a contrarian angle that looks for potentially undervalued teams that most bettors tend to avoid, as they do not like betting on teams on decided ATS losing streaks.. This angle has worked even better if the team on the ATS losing streak is now on the road (52-30-1, 63.4 percent), although we would like to see about 20 more results before presenting that one as a stand-alone angle. Home teams have still been profitable at 43-36-4, 54.4 percent ATS. Qualifiers: New York Giants +3 and San Diego -4.

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