NFL Trends & Angles – Week 13

It was a decent Week 12 for our NFL Trends & Angles as we went 5-3-1, 62.5 percent ATS on a game-by-game basis. We presented six threads with two of them producing winning records, one losing and three splitting.

Week 12 was the second straight good week for underdogs as they finished 9-6 ATS, and the dogs have now taken the lead overall this season at  87-85-4 ATS, obviously not enough to produce a profit for either side as, to the surprise of nobody, the linemakers have done an excellent job. The books have also been excellent balancing the totals as the ‘under’ went 8-7 last week, leaving the ‘over’ at 89-86 for the season.

Now we move on to Week 13, and those of you that have followed us in the past know that the majority of our angles will be contrarian in nature and not for the feint of heart, as many of them will point to live underdogs and live ‘unders’.

One notable exception is our leading angle, which is one of our very few angles that actually points exclusively to favorites, but the rest of this week’s angles fit our usual ugly mode for the most part. And note that this will be the last week for that leading favorite angle now that bye weeks are over with for this year.

The records for all of our angles will only go back to 2005 going forward the rest of the year as that gives us a large enough sampling for full-season trends without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games less than ideal.

Finally, you will occasionally see angles that refer to Good Teams and/or Bad Teams. As a reminder, we are not using those terms subjectively, but rather, Good Teams are strictly defined as teams that have won at least 10 of their last 16 games straight up and Bad Teams are defined as teams that have lost at least 10 of their last 16 games straight up.

We are coming back with the same six angles as last week again this week, so without further ado, here are our NFL Trends & Angles for Week 13, with all records being for the last nine seasons since 2005 plus the first 12 weeks of this year.

Play on any favorite coming off of a bye week (101-66-5, 60.5% ATS): This is one of the few angles we use that is not a contrarian one in nature, but the winning percentage over a nice sampling justifies us using it. NFL teams that have had an extra week of preparation time have had a nice advantage in recent years, and prep time aside, the added time off also oftentimes allows any injured players the teams may have some extra recovery time, which is an added bonus. Qualifier: Steelers -3½.

Play on any road underdog coming off of a road loss (162-101-5, 61.6% ATS): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs, and this angle also adds in the motivation off wanting to bounce back after a loss. Qualifiers: Tennessee +6 and Washington +9½.

Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (204-147-6, 58.1% ATS): This one is similar to the previous angle, except that the team coming off of the road game in now facing a familiar conference foe, which lessens the travel effect since the team usually knows how to attack the foe and what to expect on defense, and it also does not matter if the team won or lost its previous road game. Qualifiers: Cleveland +2½ and Tennessee +6.

Play on any team that lost its last game straight up by more than 28 points (87-59-5, 59.6% ATS): This angle combines two concepts, as professional teams in any sport do not like to get embarrassed and oftentimes bounce back strong in their next game, and also bettors tend to shy away from these teams, often leading to added line value. Qualifier: New York Jets +5½ (Monday).

Play on any team that failed to cover its last game by more than 25 points (90-61-4, 59.6% ATS): The reasoning behind this angle is exactly the same as the previous angle, i.e., it combines the concepts of teams wanting to bounce back from a bad effort and bettors not wanting to bet on teams that just played so poorly. The difference is that this angle measures the previous margin ATS instead of straight up. Qualifier: New York Jets +5½ (Monday).

Bet on any team that has lost at least four straight games ATS (96-67-5, 58.9% ATS): This is a contrarian angle that looks for potentially undervalued teams that most bettors tend to avoid, as they do not like betting on teams on decided ATS losing streaks.. This angle has worked even better if the team on the ATS losing streak is now on the road (52-30-1, 63.4 percent), although we would like to see about 20 more results before presenting that one as a stand-alone angle. Home teams have still been profitable at 44-37-4, 54.3 percent ATS. Qualifier: San Diego +5½.

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