Week 14 NFL Trends & Angles

The underdogs had the slight edge in Week 13 going 9-7 ATS, brining the dogs to 96-92-4 ATS overall for the season, obviously not enough to give an edge to either side as the oddsmakers have done an excellent job as usual. The ‘overs’ also finished at 9-7 in Week 13, bringing the ‘over’ to 98-93 for the season, again not leading to a profit either way.

Week 13 was not a good one for our NFL Trends & Angles as we went just 3-5 ATS on a game-by-game basis. We presented three angles that had winning weeks and three that had losing weeks, but unfortunately the three losing angles went a cumulative 0-5 game-by-game.

That may actually be a blessing in disguise for this week as we have yet to have back-to-back losing weeks this year. So undaunted, we now move on to Week 14, and those of you that have followed us in the past know that the majority of our angles will be contrarian in nature and not for the feint of heart, as many of them will point to live underdogs and live ‘unders’.

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The records for all of our angles only go back to 2005 as that gives us a large enough sampling for full-season trends without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games less than ideal.

Finally, you will occasionally see angles that refer to Good Teams and/or Bad Teams. As a reminder, we are not using those terms subjectively, but rather, Good Teams are strictly defined as teams that have won at least 10 of their last 16 games straight up and Bad Teams are defined as teams that have lost at least 10 of their last 16 games straight up.

We once again have six angles this week, carrying over three of them from last week while dusting off three others that have performed well in the past. So with no further ado, here are our NFL Trends & Angles for Week 14, with all records being for the last nine seasons since 2005 plus the first 13 weeks of this year.

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Play on any road underdog coming off of a road loss (162-103-5, 61.1% ATS): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs, and this angle also adds in the motivation off wanting to bounce back after a loss.
Qualifier: Carolina +9½. 

Play on any team that lost its last game straight up by more than 28 points (88-59-5, 59.9% ATS): This angle combines two concepts, as professional teams in any sport do not like to get embarrassed and oftentimes bounce back strong in their next game, and also bettors tend to shy away from these teams, often leading to added line value.
Qualifier: Oakland +8.

Play on any team that failed to cover its last game by more than 25 points (91-61-4, 59.9% ATS): The reasoning behind this angle is exactly the same as the previous angle, i.e., it combines the concepts of teams wanting to bounce back from a bad effort and bettors not wanting to bet on teams that just played so poorly. The difference is that this angle measures the previous margin ATS instead of straight up.
Qualifiers: Dallas -3½ (Thursday) and Oakland +8.

Play the ‘over’ if a Good Team has won three straight games and is now facing a Bad Team (79-53-6, 59.8%): This angle is actually not contrarian but seems to be underutilized based on the record. Good Teams that are hot tend to remain potent while Bad Teams are less likely to slow them down, usually leading to high scoring affairs.
Qualifying ‘over’: Atlanta at Green Bay (Monday).

Play against any favorite of -7½ or more that lost straight up as a favorite in its last game (67-46, 59.4% ATS):Teams that are favored after losing as favorites in their previous game are often overrated teams, and this becomes especially true if they are favored by more than a touchdown the following week, as you can see by the record of this angle with a sampling of over 100 decisions.
Qualifiers: Oakland +8 over San Francisco.

Play on any Bad Team as a road underdog of +7½ or more that was an underdog in each of its last four games (63-45-1, 58.3% ATS): Playing this angle may take some courage as it often points you to the worst teams in the league, and as rather big road underdogs no less! But that is precisely the point as these teams often offer great value with no novice bettors wanting any part of them, as evidenced by the excellent winning percentage over a sampling of over 100 games.
Qualifiers: Carolina +9½ and Tampa Bay +9½.

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