NFL Trends & Angles – Week 16

Well, we were unable to follow up our phenomenal 7-1 week of two weeks ago as we went just 4-5-1 ATS in Week 15 on a game-by-game basis. We presented six angles with two of them having winning weeks, two having losing weeks and two splitting.

For the second consecutive week the favorites and underdogs split, both going 7-7-2 ATS in Week 15, still leaving the underdogs at 111-107-6 ATS overall for the season, clarifying that the oddsmakers know exactly what they are doing as usual. The same goes for totals also even with the ‘unders’ having a huge 13-3 week, as that still leaves the ‘unders’ at 116-107 for the season, not enough to turn a profit at -110 at just 52.0 percent.

So now we move on to Week 16, and those of you that have followed us in the past know that the majority of our angles will be contrarian in nature and not for the feint of heart, as many of them will point to live underdogs and live ‘unders’.

The records for all of our angles only go back to 2005 as that gives us a large enough sampling for full-season trends without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games less than ideal.

Finally, you will occasionally see angles that refer to Good Teams and/or Bad Teams. As a reminder, we are not using those terms subjectively, but rather, Good Teams are strictly defined as teams that have won at least 10 of their last 16 games straight up and Bad Teams are defined as teams that have lost at least 10 of their last 16 games straight up.

We once again have six angles this week, repeating five of them from last week while also dusting off a new one that has performed well in the past. So with no further ado, here are our NFL Trends & Angles for Week 16, with all records being for the last nine seasons since 2005 plus the first 15 weeks of this year.

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*Note* – There is currently no line in the Cleveland at Carolina contest.

Play on any road underdog coming off of a road loss (164-104-5, 61.2% ATS): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs, and this angle also adds in the motivation off wanting to bounce back after a loss. Qualifier: Minnesota +6½.

Play against any home favorite of -3 or more that was an underdog in each of its last three games (65-42, 60.8% ATS): This is an oldie but goodie that we have used in one form or another in every sport that we do, be it professional or college. Teams that have been underdogs in their last three games in a row are often not very good teams, and when these clubs are suddenly cast in the favored role, they have tended to wilt under the pressure of now being expected to win. Qualifier: Tennessee +3 vs. Jacksonville (Thursday).

Play on any team that lost its last game straight up by more than 28 points (90-60-5, 60.0% ATS): This angle combines two concepts, as professional teams in any sport do not like to get embarrassed and oftentimes bounce back strong in their next game, and also bettors tend to shy away from these teams, often leading to added line value. Qualifier: Cleveland (no line yet).

Play on any team that failed to cover its last game by more than 25 points (94-62-4, 60.3% ATS): The reasoning behind this angle is exactly the same as the previous angle, i.e., it combines the concepts of teams wanting to bounce back from a bad effort and bettors not wanting to bet on teams that just played so poorly. The difference is that this angle measures the previous margin ATS instead of straight up. Qualifier: Cleveland (no line yet).

Play the ‘over’ if a Good Team has won three straight games and is now facing a Bad Team (80-53-6, 60.2%): This angle is actually not contrarian but seems to be underutilized based on the record. Good Teams that are hot tend to remain potent while Bad Teams are less likely to slow them down, usually leading to high scoring affairs. Qualifying ‘over’: Detroit vs. Chicago.

Play against any favorite of -7½ or more that lost straight up as a favorite in its last game (68-47, 59.1% ATS): Teams that are favored after losing as favorites in their previous game are often overrated teams, and this becomes especially true if they are favored by more than a touchdown the following week, as you can see by the record of this angle with a sampling of over 100 decisions. Qualifiers: Washington +9 over Philadelphia and Tampa Bay +10 over Green Bay.

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