Need Help? Contact Us

We check out each sportsbook personally, and welcome feedback from anyone regarding these sportsbooks. Each sportsbook is certified Safe & Reliable for sports bettors..
info@insiderangles.com

SIGNUP FOR OUR DAILY PICK

E-mail address:

NFL Trends & Angles – Divisional Playoff Round – January 10, 2015

The favorites and underdogs split 2-2 ATS in the Wild Card Round, as on both Saturday and Sunday the favorite covered the first game and the underdog covered the late game. The totals also split 2-2, with the ‘over’ going 2-0 on Saturday but the ‘under’ coming back to go 2-0 on Sunday.

So now it is time to move on to the divisional round as we look to improve on our disappointing playoff start.

And the best part about the playoffs for more informed bettors is that there is more “square” money bet this time of year than during the regular season, forcing books to shade some lines more than they do during the regular year. Thus, as counterintuitive as it may seem, playoff lines are actually often softer than regular season lines as books can better withstand the “sharps” winning more due to the sheer amount of square dollars bet!

That can lead to some vulnerable lines for astute observers, and as usual, underdogs are a nice place to start with many of the novice players eager get down on the popular favorites. That same logic suggests to look at playing the ‘under’ first when playing totals, with fans of high scoring games, especially the aforementioned “squares” that sometimes have not bet all season, usually betting the ‘over’.

Now, because there are only 11 post-season NFL games every year, it is hard to get as large a sample size when going back to the 2005 season like we do during the regular season. Therefore, our NFL Playoff Trends & Angles have varying lengths out of necessity, and even with that, not all of them will have the larger sample sizes you have become accustomed to seeing with our regular season trends.

But regardless, here are our NFL Trends & Angles for the Divisional Playoff Round, with the length of each Trend & Angle specified. We have six angles this week, beginning with two that are specific to this divisional round.

Play against all playoff teams in the divisional round coming off of a first round bye (26-17-1, 60.5% ATS since 2003): First round byes are supposed to be a good thing, which is why they are rewarded to the top two seeds in each conference. However, based on the results of the last 12 years, it looks like having a bye week kills some momentum, or that actually playing on wild card week actually keeps a team sharp or gives it momentum, or perhaps it is a combination off all these things. Qualifiers: Baltimore +7 vs. New England (Saturday), Carolina +10½ vs. Seattle (Saturday), Dallas +6 vs. Green Bay (Sunday) and Indianapolis +7 vs. Denver (Sunday).

In the divisional round only, play on any playoff team that won on the road in the wild card round (12-3-1, 80.0% ATS since 2005): It is supposed to be hard to win on the road during the playoffs, as road teams are the lower seed after all, but apparently once a team does win on the road it becomes easier to repeat the performance. That could be the reason why so many wild cards have made Super Bowl runs in recent years. Qualifier: Baltimore +7 (Saturday).

In playoff rematches of non-divisional regular season meetings, play on the team that lost the regular season meeting straight up (44-26-1, 62.9% ATS since 2001): A lot of non-divisional regular season matchups take place once every four years or so, which means that the teams are usually unfamiliar with each other when they take the field. However, if fate allows those teams to meet again in the playoffs, the team that lost now has some actual game tape to dissect and can make adjustments to either get revenge in the playoffs or at least make the game more competitive. Qualifiers: Carolina +10½ vs. Seattle (Saturday) and Indianapolis +7 vs. Denver (Sunday).

Play the ‘over’ in the playoffs when the home team has covered its last three games ATS (24-11, 68.6% since 1996): Teams on ATS winning streaks are usually playing well and when they are home in the playoffs, it as has tended to lead to rather high scoring games with these teams favored more often than not and thus needing to score quite a bit of points to cover the spread. And based on the record of this angle, these teams have done so at a good clip. Qualifying ‘over’: Carolina at Seattle (Saturday).

Play the ‘over’ in the playoffs when a team has gone ‘under’ in its last three games ATS (28-12-1, 70.0% since 2002): This is one of those contrarian angles that we are very fond of, as teams that have gone ‘under’ in three straight games are often defensive-minded but teams naturally become more offensive minded once the playoffs begin with even defensive teams scoring more points by taking advantage of good field position set up by the defense. Qualifying ‘over’: Indianapolis at. Denver (Sunday).

Play on any playoff road underdog that was on the road in its previous game (35-23, 60.3% ATS since 2000): This is similar to some angles we use during the regular season dealing with teams playing consecutive road games as oddsmakers oftentimes inflate the lines when these teams are the underdogs in the second game due to over-adjusting for the travel factor. Qualifiers: Baltimore +7 (Saturday).

LIKE THESE NEWSLETTERS?

PLEASE SUPPORT US BY SIGNING UP

FOR THE FREE OFFER BELOW. IT COSTS YOU $0

AND HELPS US KEEP THIS FREE

NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP, NFL, NBA & NCAA-B

GET $50 WORTH OF PICKS FREE – NO CREDIT CARD NEEDED

Share

NFL Trends & Angles – Week 16

Well, we were unable to follow up our phenomenal 7-1 week of two weeks ago as we went just 4-5-1 ATS in Week 15 on a game-by-game basis. We presented six angles with two of them having winning weeks, two having losing weeks and two splitting.

For the second consecutive week the favorites and underdogs split, both going 7-7-2 ATS in Week 15, still leaving the underdogs at 111-107-6 ATS overall for the season, clarifying that the oddsmakers know exactly what they are doing as usual. The same goes for totals also even with the ‘unders’ having a huge 13-3 week, as that still leaves the ‘unders’ at 116-107 for the season, not enough to turn a profit at -110 at just 52.0 percent.

So now we move on to Week 16, and those of you that have followed us in the past know that the majority of our angles will be contrarian in nature and not for the feint of heart, as many of them will point to live underdogs and live ‘unders’.

The records for all of our angles only go back to 2005 as that gives us a large enough sampling for full-season trends without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games less than ideal.

Finally, you will occasionally see angles that refer to Good Teams and/or Bad Teams. As a reminder, we are not using those terms subjectively, but rather, Good Teams are strictly defined as teams that have won at least 10 of their last 16 games straight up and Bad Teams are defined as teams that have lost at least 10 of their last 16 games straight up.

We once again have six angles this week, repeating five of them from last week while also dusting off a new one that has performed well in the past. So with no further ado, here are our NFL Trends & Angles for Week 16, with all records being for the last nine seasons since 2005 plus the first 15 weeks of this year.

NFL, NCAA, NBA, NCAA-B PICKS FROM PRO’S

GET $25 WORTH OF PAID PICKS
$50 WHEN YOU SIGN UP TODAY
(NO CREDIT CARD REQUIRED)

SIGN UP HERE – GET SET UP INSTANTLY

*Note* – There is currently no line in the Cleveland at Carolina contest.

Play on any road underdog coming off of a road loss (164-104-5, 61.2% ATS): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs, and this angle also adds in the motivation off wanting to bounce back after a loss. Qualifier: Minnesota +6½.

Play against any home favorite of -3 or more that was an underdog in each of its last three games (65-42, 60.8% ATS): This is an oldie but goodie that we have used in one form or another in every sport that we do, be it professional or college. Teams that have been underdogs in their last three games in a row are often not very good teams, and when these clubs are suddenly cast in the favored role, they have tended to wilt under the pressure of now being expected to win. Qualifier: Tennessee +3 vs. Jacksonville (Thursday).

Play on any team that lost its last game straight up by more than 28 points (90-60-5, 60.0% ATS): This angle combines two concepts, as professional teams in any sport do not like to get embarrassed and oftentimes bounce back strong in their next game, and also bettors tend to shy away from these teams, often leading to added line value. Qualifier: Cleveland (no line yet).

Play on any team that failed to cover its last game by more than 25 points (94-62-4, 60.3% ATS): The reasoning behind this angle is exactly the same as the previous angle, i.e., it combines the concepts of teams wanting to bounce back from a bad effort and bettors not wanting to bet on teams that just played so poorly. The difference is that this angle measures the previous margin ATS instead of straight up. Qualifier: Cleveland (no line yet).

Play the ‘over’ if a Good Team has won three straight games and is now facing a Bad Team (80-53-6, 60.2%): This angle is actually not contrarian but seems to be underutilized based on the record. Good Teams that are hot tend to remain potent while Bad Teams are less likely to slow them down, usually leading to high scoring affairs. Qualifying ‘over’: Detroit vs. Chicago.

Play against any favorite of -7½ or more that lost straight up as a favorite in its last game (68-47, 59.1% ATS): Teams that are favored after losing as favorites in their previous game are often overrated teams, and this becomes especially true if they are favored by more than a touchdown the following week, as you can see by the record of this angle with a sampling of over 100 decisions. Qualifiers: Washington +9 over Philadelphia and Tampa Bay +10 over Green Bay.

NFL, NCAA, NBA, NCAA-B PICKS FROM PRO’S

GET $25 WORTH OF PAID PICKS
$50 WHEN YOU SIGN UP TODAY
(NO CREDIT CARD REQUIRED)

SIGN UP HERE – GET SET UP INSTANTLY

Share

Week 15 NFL Trends & Angles

Well, we pointed out after a losing Week 13 that we have yet to have back-to-back losing weeks and we responded in a big way by having our best week of the season in Week 14, going 7-1 on a game-by-game basis! We presented six angles and five of them had not only winning records but perfect records going a cumulative 6-0, while the sixth angle split 1-1.

The favorites and underdogs split 8-8 ATS in Week 14, leaving the underdogs at 104-100-4 ATS overall for the season, clarifying that the oddsmakers know exactly what they are doing as usual. The same goes for totals also, as while the ‘unders’ went 10-6 in Week 14, that now leaves the ‘overs’ at 104-103 for the season.

So now we move on to Week 15, and those of you that have followed us in the past know that the majority of our angles will be contrarian in nature and not for the feint of heart, as many of them will point to live underdogs and live ‘unders’.

The records for all of our angles only go back to 2005 as that gives us a large enough sampling for full-season trends without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games less than ideal.

Finally, you will occasionally see angles that refer to Good Teams and/or Bad Teams. As a reminder, we are not using those terms subjectively, but rather, Good Teams are strictly defined as teams that have won at least 10 of their last 16 games straight up and Bad Teams are defined as teams that have lost at least 10 of their last 16 games straight up.

We once again have six angles this week, repeating five of them from last week while replacing one that had no qualifying plays this week with another one that has performed well in the past. So without further ado, here are our NFL Trends & Angles for Week 15, with all records being for the last nine seasons since 2005 plus the first 14 weeks of this year.

NFL, NCAA, NBA, NCAA-B PICKS FROM PRO’S

GET $25 WORTH OF PAID PICKS

$50 WHEN YOU SIGN UP TODAY

(NO CREDIT CARD REQUIRED)

SIGN UP HERE – GET SET UP INSTANTLY

Play on any road underdog coming off of a road loss (163-103-5, 61.3% ATS): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs, and this angle also adds in the motivation off wanting to bounce back after a loss. Qualifiers: San Francisco +10 and Tampa Bay +3½.

Play against any home favorite of -3 or more that was an underdog in each of its last three games (64-42, 60.4% ATS): This is an oldie but goodie that we have used in one form or another in every sport that we do, be it professional or college. Teams that have been underdogs in their last three games in a row are often not very good teams, and when these clubs are suddenly cast in the favored role, they have tended to wilt under the pressure of now being expected to win. Qualifier: Tampa Bay +3½ vs. Carolina.

Play on any team that lost its last game straight up by more than 28 points (89-59-5, 60.1% ATS): This angle combines two concepts, as professional teams in any sport do not like to get embarrassed and oftentimes bounce back strong in their next game, and also bettors tend to shy away from these teams, often leading to added line value. Qualifiers: Tennessee +1½ and New Orleans -3 (Monday).

Play on any team that failed to cover its last game by more than 25 points (93-61-4, 60.4% ATS): The reasoning behind this angle is exactly the same as the previous angle, i.e., it combines the concepts of teams wanting to bounce back from a bad effort and bettors not wanting to bet on teams that just played so poorly. The difference is that this angle measures the previous margin ATS instead of straight up. Qualifiers: Tennessee +1½ and New Orleans -3 (Monday).

Play against any favorite of -7½ or more that lost straight up as a favorite in its last game (68-46, 59.7% ATS): Teams that are favored after losing as favorites in their previous game are often overrated teams, and this becomes especially true if they are favored by more than a touchdown the following week, as you can see by the record of this angle with a sampling of over 100 decisions. Qualifier: Oakland +10½ over Kansas City.

Play on any Bad Team as a road underdog of +7½ or more that was an underdog in each of its last four games (64-46-1, 58.2% ATS): Playing this angle may take some courage as it often points you to the worst teams in the league, and as rather big road underdogs no less! But that is precisely the point as these teams often offer great value with no novice bettors wanting any part of them, as evidenced by the excellent winning percentage over a sampling of over 100 games. Qualifiers: Tennessee +14 and Oakland +10½.

NFL, NCAA, NBA, NCAA-B PICKS FROM PRO’S

GET $25 WORTH OF PAID PICKS

$50 WHEN YOU SIGN UP TODAY

(NO CREDIT CARD REQUIRED)

SIGN UP HERE – GET SET UP INSTANTLY

Share

Week 14 NFL Trends & Angles

The underdogs had the slight edge in Week 13 going 9-7 ATS, brining the dogs to 96-92-4 ATS overall for the season, obviously not enough to give an edge to either side as the oddsmakers have done an excellent job as usual. The ‘overs’ also finished at 9-7 in Week 13, bringing the ‘over’ to 98-93 for the season, again not leading to a profit either way.

Week 13 was not a good one for our NFL Trends & Angles as we went just 3-5 ATS on a game-by-game basis. We presented three angles that had winning weeks and three that had losing weeks, but unfortunately the three losing angles went a cumulative 0-5 game-by-game.

That may actually be a blessing in disguise for this week as we have yet to have back-to-back losing weeks this year. So undaunted, we now move on to Week 14, and those of you that have followed us in the past know that the majority of our angles will be contrarian in nature and not for the feint of heart, as many of them will point to live underdogs and live ‘unders’.

FRIDAY NIGHT KEY NCAA

ARIZONA vs. OREGON
9:00pm THURSDAY
GET THIS PICK FREE – NO CREDIT CARD NEEDED

The records for all of our angles only go back to 2005 as that gives us a large enough sampling for full-season trends without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games less than ideal.

Finally, you will occasionally see angles that refer to Good Teams and/or Bad Teams. As a reminder, we are not using those terms subjectively, but rather, Good Teams are strictly defined as teams that have won at least 10 of their last 16 games straight up and Bad Teams are defined as teams that have lost at least 10 of their last 16 games straight up.

We once again have six angles this week, carrying over three of them from last week while dusting off three others that have performed well in the past. So with no further ado, here are our NFL Trends & Angles for Week 14, with all records being for the last nine seasons since 2005 plus the first 13 weeks of this year.

NFL, NCAA, NBA, NCAA-B PICKS FROM PRO’S

GET $25 WORTH OF PAID PICKS
$50 WHEN YOU SIGN UP TODAY
(NO CREDIT CARD REQUIRED)
SIGN UP HERE – GET SET UP INSTANTLY

Play on any road underdog coming off of a road loss (162-103-5, 61.1% ATS): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs, and this angle also adds in the motivation off wanting to bounce back after a loss.
Qualifier: Carolina +9½. 

Play on any team that lost its last game straight up by more than 28 points (88-59-5, 59.9% ATS): This angle combines two concepts, as professional teams in any sport do not like to get embarrassed and oftentimes bounce back strong in their next game, and also bettors tend to shy away from these teams, often leading to added line value.
Qualifier: Oakland +8.

Play on any team that failed to cover its last game by more than 25 points (91-61-4, 59.9% ATS): The reasoning behind this angle is exactly the same as the previous angle, i.e., it combines the concepts of teams wanting to bounce back from a bad effort and bettors not wanting to bet on teams that just played so poorly. The difference is that this angle measures the previous margin ATS instead of straight up.
Qualifiers: Dallas -3½ (Thursday) and Oakland +8.

Play the ‘over’ if a Good Team has won three straight games and is now facing a Bad Team (79-53-6, 59.8%): This angle is actually not contrarian but seems to be underutilized based on the record. Good Teams that are hot tend to remain potent while Bad Teams are less likely to slow them down, usually leading to high scoring affairs.
Qualifying ‘over’: Atlanta at Green Bay (Monday).

Play against any favorite of -7½ or more that lost straight up as a favorite in its last game (67-46, 59.4% ATS):Teams that are favored after losing as favorites in their previous game are often overrated teams, and this becomes especially true if they are favored by more than a touchdown the following week, as you can see by the record of this angle with a sampling of over 100 decisions.
Qualifiers: Oakland +8 over San Francisco.

Play on any Bad Team as a road underdog of +7½ or more that was an underdog in each of its last four games (63-45-1, 58.3% ATS): Playing this angle may take some courage as it often points you to the worst teams in the league, and as rather big road underdogs no less! But that is precisely the point as these teams often offer great value with no novice bettors wanting any part of them, as evidenced by the excellent winning percentage over a sampling of over 100 games.
Qualifiers: Carolina +9½ and Tampa Bay +9½.

NFL, NCAA, NBA, NCAA-B PICKS FROM PRO’S

GET $25 WORTH OF PAID PICKS
$50 WHEN YOU SIGN UP TODAY
(NO CREDIT CARD REQUIRED)
SIGN UP HERE – GET SET UP INSTANTLY

Share

NFL Trends & Angles – Week 13

It was a decent Week 12 for our NFL Trends & Angles as we went 5-3-1, 62.5 percent ATS on a game-by-game basis. We presented six threads with two of them producing winning records, one losing and three splitting.

Week 12 was the second straight good week for underdogs as they finished 9-6 ATS, and the dogs have now taken the lead overall this season at  87-85-4 ATS, obviously not enough to produce a profit for either side as, to the surprise of nobody, the linemakers have done an excellent job. The books have also been excellent balancing the totals as the ‘under’ went 8-7 last week, leaving the ‘over’ at 89-86 for the season.

Now we move on to Week 13, and those of you that have followed us in the past know that the majority of our angles will be contrarian in nature and not for the feint of heart, as many of them will point to live underdogs and live ‘unders’.

One notable exception is our leading angle, which is one of our very few angles that actually points exclusively to favorites, but the rest of this week’s angles fit our usual ugly mode for the most part. And note that this will be the last week for that leading favorite angle now that bye weeks are over with for this year.

The records for all of our angles will only go back to 2005 going forward the rest of the year as that gives us a large enough sampling for full-season trends without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games less than ideal.

Finally, you will occasionally see angles that refer to Good Teams and/or Bad Teams. As a reminder, we are not using those terms subjectively, but rather, Good Teams are strictly defined as teams that have won at least 10 of their last 16 games straight up and Bad Teams are defined as teams that have lost at least 10 of their last 16 games straight up.

We are coming back with the same six angles as last week again this week, so without further ado, here are our NFL Trends & Angles for Week 13, with all records being for the last nine seasons since 2005 plus the first 12 weeks of this year.

Play on any favorite coming off of a bye week (101-66-5, 60.5% ATS): This is one of the few angles we use that is not a contrarian one in nature, but the winning percentage over a nice sampling justifies us using it. NFL teams that have had an extra week of preparation time have had a nice advantage in recent years, and prep time aside, the added time off also oftentimes allows any injured players the teams may have some extra recovery time, which is an added bonus. Qualifier: Steelers -3½.

Play on any road underdog coming off of a road loss (162-101-5, 61.6% ATS): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs, and this angle also adds in the motivation off wanting to bounce back after a loss. Qualifiers: Tennessee +6 and Washington +9½.

Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (204-147-6, 58.1% ATS): This one is similar to the previous angle, except that the team coming off of the road game in now facing a familiar conference foe, which lessens the travel effect since the team usually knows how to attack the foe and what to expect on defense, and it also does not matter if the team won or lost its previous road game. Qualifiers: Cleveland +2½ and Tennessee +6.

Play on any team that lost its last game straight up by more than 28 points (87-59-5, 59.6% ATS): This angle combines two concepts, as professional teams in any sport do not like to get embarrassed and oftentimes bounce back strong in their next game, and also bettors tend to shy away from these teams, often leading to added line value. Qualifier: New York Jets +5½ (Monday).

Play on any team that failed to cover its last game by more than 25 points (90-61-4, 59.6% ATS): The reasoning behind this angle is exactly the same as the previous angle, i.e., it combines the concepts of teams wanting to bounce back from a bad effort and bettors not wanting to bet on teams that just played so poorly. The difference is that this angle measures the previous margin ATS instead of straight up. Qualifier: New York Jets +5½ (Monday).

Bet on any team that has lost at least four straight games ATS (96-67-5, 58.9% ATS): This is a contrarian angle that looks for potentially undervalued teams that most bettors tend to avoid, as they do not like betting on teams on decided ATS losing streaks.. This angle has worked even better if the team on the ATS losing streak is now on the road (52-30-1, 63.4 percent), although we would like to see about 20 more results before presenting that one as a stand-alone angle. Home teams have still been profitable at 44-37-4, 54.3 percent ATS. Qualifier: San Diego +5½.

Share

NFL Trends & Angles – Week 12

Week 11 was a very nice week for underdogs around the NFL, which would normally translate to a nice week for our NFL Trends & Angles. Unfortunately our angles actually pointed to more favorites than usual last week though and we only ended up doing the splits as two of our angles had winning weeks, two had losing weeks and two of them split.

By the end of Week 11, the underdogs finished 10-4 ATS and cut into the lead of the favorites overall this year. In fact, there is now practically no lead at all as the chalk is just 79-78-4 ATS for the season, so to the surprise of nobody, after all is said and done the linemakers have done an excellent job with neither side producing a profit.

Similarly it was also a good week for the ‘unders’ as they too went 10-4, leaving the ‘overs’ at 82-78, 51.3 percent for the year, again providing no edges either way.

GET $50 WORTH OF PRO PICKS ABSOLUTELY FREE – NO CREDIT CARD REQUIRED – INSTANT ACCESS

Now it is time to move on to Week 12, and despite last week’s anomaly, those of you that have followed us in the past know that the majority of our angles will be contrarian in nature and not for the feint of heart, as many of them will point to live underdogs and live ‘unders’.

One notable exception is our leading angle, which is one of our very few angles that actually points exclusively to favorites, but the rest of this week’s angles fit our usual ugly mode for the most part. As an aside, the leading angle will say farewell next week with the end of this season’s bye weeks.

The records for all of our angles will only go back to 2005 going forward the rest of the year as that gives us a large enough sampling for full-season trends without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games less than ideal.

Finally, you will occasionally see angles that refer to Good Teams and/or Bad Teams. As a reminder, we are not using those terms subjectively, but rather, Good Teams are strictly defined as teams that have won at least 10 of their last 16 games straight up and Bad Teams are defined as teams that have lost at least 10 of their last 16 games straight up.

We are once again presenting six angles this week, so without further ado, here are our NFL Trends & Angles for Week 12, with all records being for the last nine seasons since 2005 plus the first 11 weeks of this year.

Play on any favorite coming off of a bye week (101-65-5, 60.8% ATS): This is one of the few angles we use that is not a contrarian one in nature, but the winning percentage over a nice sampling justifies us using it. NFL teams that have had an extra week of preparation time have had a nice advantage in recent years, and prep time aside, the added time off also oftentimes allows any injured players the teams may have some extra recovery time, which is an added bonus. Qualifier: Dallas -3.

Play on any road underdog coming off of a road loss (162-100-5, 61.8% ATS): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs, and this angle also adds in the motivation off wanting to bounce back after a loss. Qualifier: Detroit +7.

Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (203-146-6, 58.2% ATS): This one is similar to the previous angle, except that the team coming off of the road game in now facing a familiar conference foe, which lessens the travel effect since the team usually knows how to attack the foe and what to expect on defense, and it also does not matter if the team won or lost its previous road game. Qualifiers: Cincinnati +1 and Tampa Bay +5.

Play on any team that lost its last game straight up by more than 28 points (86-59-5, 59.3% ATS): This angle combines two concepts, as professional teams in any sport do not like to get embarrassed and oftentimes bounce back strong in their next game, and also bettors tend to shy away from these teams, often leading to added line value. Qualifier:Philadelphia -11.

GET $50 WORTH OF PRO PICKS ABSOLUTELY FREE – NO CREDIT CARD REQUIRED – INSTANT ACCESS

Play on any team that failed to cover its last game by more than 25 points (88-61-4, 58.9% ATS): The reasoning behind this angle is exactly the same as the previous angle, i.e., it combines the concepts of teams wanting to bounce back from a bad effort and bettors not wanting to bet on teams that just played so poorly. The difference is that this angle measures the previous margin ATS instead of straight up. Qualifiers: Philadelphia -11 and Washington +9.

Bet on any team that has lost at least four straight games ATS (95-66-5, 59.0% ATS): This is a contrarian angle that looks for potentially undervalued teams that most bettors tend to avoid, as they do not like betting on teams on decided ATS losing streaks.. This angle has worked even better if the team on the ATS losing streak is now on the road (52-30-1, 63.4 percent), although we would like to see about 20 more results before presenting that one as a stand-alone angle. Home teams have still been profitable at 43-36-4, 54.4 percent ATS. Qualifiers: New York Giants +3 and San Diego -4.

Share

Week 11 NFL Trends & Angles

Week 10 was another awful week for the sportsbooks with favorites and ‘overs’ doing so well, and when the general public does that well, our NFL Trends & Angles usually suffer. However that was not the case as although it was not a winning week, we feel rather fortunate to have gone 5-5 ATS on a game-by-game basis, and as fate would have it all five of the winning plays were favorites!

By the end of Week 10, the favorites finished 9-4 ATS and the chalk is now 75-68-4, 52.5 percent ATS for the season, which would produce just a minuscule profit at -110 odds but a bit more at reduced-juice shops. As for the ‘overs’, they went 7-6 for the week but 5-0 beginning with the 4:00 ET games Sunday, making chasers very happy especially in the prime time games, and ‘overs’ are now 78-68, 53.4 percent overall for the season.

GET $50 IN PICKS FROM EXPERTS FOR FREE – NO CREDIT CARD REQUIRED

We now move on to Week 11, and despite last week’s results, those of you that have followed us in the past know that the majority of our angles will be contrarian in nature and not for the feint of heart, as many of them will point to live underdogs and live ‘unders’.

As Irony would have it though, we are again leading off with one of our very few angles that actually points exclusively to favorites, but the rest of this week’s angles fit our usual ugly mode for the most part. With that being said, even those contrarian angles point to some favorites this week.

The records for all of our angles will only go back to 2005 going forward the rest of the year as that gives us a large enough sampling for full-season trends without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games less than ideal.

Finally, you will occasionally see angles that refer to Good Teams and/or Bad Teams. As a reminder, we are not using those terms subjectively, but rather, Good Teams are strictly defined as teams that have won at least 10 of their last 16 games straight up and Bad Teams are defined as teams that have lost at least 10 of their last 16 games straight up.

Once again we are presenting six angles this week, with four of them being carried over from last week as well as two other ones that have been dormant lately but finally have qualifying plays again this week. So without further ado, here are our NFL Trends & Angles for Week 11, with all records being for the last nine seasons since 2005 plus the first 10 weeks of this year.

Play on any favorite coming off of a bye week (101-62-5, 62.0% ATS): This is one of the few angles we use that is not a contrarian one in nature, but the winning percentage over a nice sampling justifies us using it. NFL teams that have had an extra week of preparation time have had a nice advantage in recent years, and prep time aside, the added time off also oftentimes allows any injured players the teams may have some extra recovery time, which is an added bonus. Qualifiers: Indianapolis -2½, San Diego -10 and Washington -7.

Bet on any team that has lost at least four straight games ATS (95-64-5, 59.7% ATS): This is a contrarian angle that looks for potentially undervalued teams that most bettors tend to avoid, as they do not like betting on teams on decided ATS losing streaks.. This angle has worked even better if the team on the ATS losing streak is now on the road (52-30-1, 63.4 percent), although we would like to see about 20 more results before presenting that one as a stand-alone angle. Home teams have still been profitable at 43-34-4, 55.8 percent ATS. Qualifiers: New York Giants +4½ and San Diego -10.

Play on any team that lost its last game straight up by more than 28 points (85-58-5, 59.4% ATS): This angle combines two concepts, as professional teams in any sport do not like to get embarrassed and oftentimes bounce back strong in their next game, and also bettors tend to shy away from these teams, often leading to added line value. Qualifiers: Chicago -3½ and San Diego -10.

Play on any team that failed to cover its last game by more than 25 points (86-60-4, 58.9% ATS): The reasoning behind this angle is exactly the same as the previous angle, i.e., it combines the concepts of teams wanting to bounce back from a bad effort and bettors not wanting to bet on teams that just played so poorly. The difference is that this angle measures the previous margin ATS instead of straight up.  Qualifier: Chicago -3½, Cincinnati +7 and San Diego -10.

Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (203-146-6, 58.2% ATS): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs, and this angle also adds in the familiarity off facing a conference foe. Qualifier: Atlanta +1½.

GET $50 IN PICKS FROM EXPERTS FOR FREE – NO CREDIT CARD REQUIRED

Play against any home team coming off of two or more road losses (100-72-7, 58.1% ATS): Many times, teams coming off of consecutive road losses but returning home are actually overvalued because some people expect them to suddenly play better in front of their home fans. However, these are often bad teams that don’t enjoy as much of a home field advantage anyway, and this angle becomes even more effective as the season goes along when those consecutive losses have greater affect on a team’s playoff chances. Qualifiers: Minnesota +3½ at Chicago and Oakland +10 at San Diego.

Share

Still A Long Way From The Inaugural College Football Playoff

After 11 weeks of the 2014 college football season, there is but one certainty remaining. There will be playoff-caliber football all November long.

Mississippi State, which got a reprieve from its SEC opponents last week and toyed with Tennessee- Martin, still sits atop the polls with an unblemished 9-0 record. It is the first time in school history that the Bulldogs have ever been 9-0 and head coach Dan Mullen is cautiously optimistic.

After the 48-16 win over UT-Martin, Mullen said, “We still haven’t achieved all that much. With three games left to play we’re in first place in the West, but there’s still a lot of football.”

Indeed, there is. Mullen’s squad will get to prove to the college football world that they really do belong when they travel to Tuscaloosa this weekend to take on No. 5 Alabama. If history is any indication, the Crimson Tide have won the last six meetings, including last year’s 20-7 victory in Starkville.

GET $50 WORTH OF FREE PICKS  –  NO CREDIT CARD REQUIRED

Should the Bulldogs manage to get out of Tuscaloosa with a win, they still have to face arch-rival Ole Miss in the annual Egg Bowl on Nov. 29. Sandwiched between those two contests is a visit from 3-7 Vanderbilt. As Mullen said, there is still plenty of meaningful left this season.

Florida State, which has won 23 straight games, is also unbeaten and ranks second in the most current College Football Playoff standings. The Seminoles were not impressive last week but did manage to defeat Virginia, 34-20. Quarterback Jameis Winston will lead the ‘Noles in two big rivalry games down the stretch. FSU will face Miami this weekend and take on Florida on Nov. 29. They will also face a 6-4 Boston College squad that could give them trouble.

With Auburn’s upset loss to Texas A&M, the door is now open for Oregon, Alabama, TCU, and Baylor. All four schools have just one loss and, at this point in the season, another will most likely take them right out of playoff contention.

The Ducks destroyed a pretty solid Utah team last Saturday night, 51-27. Quarterback Marcus Mariota took another step toward a possible Heisman Trophy win with 239 yards and three TDs passing and another 114 yards and a TD rushing against the Utes.

Of the school’s remaining in the playoff hunt, the Ducks might have the easiest path. After a week off, Oregon closes the season with Colorado and then the Civil War at Oregon State. The Ducks, which have clinched the Pac-12 North, would have to face the South Division winner, most likely Arizona State, in the conference championship game.

One could argue that TCU should be one of the top four schools in the playoff rankings with wins over five ranked opponents, including last week’s win over No. 7 Kansas State. The Horned Frogs will also benefit from their year-end schedule and the lack of a Big 12 championship game. TCU finishes up with Kansas (3-6), Texas (5-5), and Iowa State (2-7).

TCU’s only loss came at the hands of Baylor, which re-staked its claim to a playoff spot with a 48-14 thrashing of 15th-ranked Oklahoma last week. Quarterback Bryce Petty once again leads the nation’s top scoring offense (50.1 points per game). Only a Week 7 loss to West Virginia is keeping the Bears out of the top four picture.
When the college football world talks playoffs and national championships, that discussion usually includes Alabama. The Crimson Tide have won three of the past five national championships and could do so again this year. Head coach Nick Saban and company have won four straight since losing 23-17 to Ole Miss back on Oct. 4. While they haven’t been dominant, they are still Alabama and that means tough defense, a strong running game, and team that doesn’t make a lot of mistakes.

The problem for the Tide is they must face top-ranked Mississippi State this weekend and then close the season with Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Luckily for Alabama, both games are at home. If the Tide can win out, there is no doubt they will be one of the top four in the very first College Football Playoff.

GET $50 WORTH OF FREE PICKS  –  NO CREDIT CARD REQUIRED

Share

NFL Trends & Angles – Week 10

Week 9 was a pretty good one for our NFL Trends & Angles as we went 8-5, 61.5 percent ATS on a game-by-game basis. We presented six angles and three of them had winning records going a cumulative 5-0 ATS, while two had losing records and the other one split.

It was also a perfect split for favorites and underdogs in Week 9 with each side finishing 6-6-1 ATS, thus leaving the chalk at 66-64-4, 50.7 percent ATS for the season as the books have done a great job as usual with neither side being profitable. Looking at totals, the ‘overs’ went 7-5-1 for the week, slightly extending their lead for the season to 71-62, 53.4 percent overall, producing a slight profit at -110 odds.

NEED A WINNER TONIGHT?  GET $50 WORTH OF PAID PICKS FOR FREE – NO CREDIT CARD NEEDED

We now move on to Week 10, and those of you that have followed us in the past know that the majority of our angles will be contrarian in nature and not for the feint of heart, as many of them will point to live underdogs and live ‘unders’. Ironically we are again leading off with one of our very few angles that actually points exclusively to favorites, but the rest of this week’s angles fit our usual ugly mode for the most part.

The records for all of our angles will only go back to 2005 going forward the rest of the year as that gives us a large enough sampling for full-season trends without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games less than ideal.

Finally, you will occasionally see angles that refer to Good Teams and/or Bad Teams. As a reminder, we are not using those terms subjectively, but rather, Good Teams are strictly defined as teams that have won at least 10 of their last 16 games straight up and Bad Teams are defined as teams that have lost at least 10 of their last 16 games straight up.

Once again we are presenting six angles this week, with four of them being carried over from last week and two other ones that have not had qualifying plays lately now being resurrected. So without further ado, here are our NFL Trends & Angles for Week 10, with all records being for the last nine seasons since 2005 plus the first nine weeks of this year.

Please note that there is currently no line on the Dallas vs. Jacksonville game in London. Thus that game is not included in any angles.

Play on any favorite coming off of a bye week (98-61-5, 61.6% ATS): This is one of the few angles we use that is not a contrarian one in nature, but the winning percentage over a nice sampling justifies us using it. NFL teams that have had an extra week of preparation time have had a nice advantage in recent years, and prep time aside, the added time off also oftentimes allows any injured players the teams may have some extra recovery time, which is an added bonus. Qualifiers: Atlanta -1, Detroit -2½ and Green Bay -7.

Play against any favorite of -7½ or more that lost straight up as a favorite in its last game (66-34, 66.0% ATS):Teams that are favored after losing as favorites in their previous game are often overrated teams, and this becomes especially true if they are favored by more than a touchdown the following week, as you can see by the record of this angle with a sampling of over 100 decisions. Qualifier: Raiders +11½ vs. Denver.

NEED A WINNER TONIGHT?  GET $50 WORTH OF PAID PICKS FOR FREE – NO CREDIT CARD NEEDED

Play on any road underdog coming off of a road loss (162-99-5, 62.1% ATS): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs, and this angle also adds in the motivation off wanting to bounce back after a loss. Qualifier: Chicago +7.

Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (203-144-6, 58.5% ATS): This one is similar to the previous angle, except that the team coming off of the road game in now facing a familiar conference foe, which lessens the travel effect since the team usually knows how to attack the foe and what to expect on defense, and it also does not matter if the team won or lost its previous road game. Qualifiers: Chicago +7 and St. Louis +7.

Bet on any team that has lost at least four straight games ATS (94-64-5, 59.5% ATS): This is a contrarian angle that looks for potentially undervalued teams that most bettors tend to avoid, as they do not like betting on teams on decided ATS losing streaks.. This angle has worked even better if the team on the ATS losing streak is now on the road (52-30-1, 63.4 percent), although we would like to see about 20 more results before presenting that one as a stand-alone angle. Home teams have still been profitable at 42-34-4, 55.3 percent ATS. Qualifier: Seattle -9.

Play against any home team coming off of two or more road losses (99-71-7, 58.2% ATS): Many times, teams coming off of consecutive road losses but returning home are actually overvalued because some people expect them to suddenly play better in front of their home fans. However, these are often bad teams that don’t enjoy as much of a home field advantage anyway, and this angle becomes even more effective as the season goes along when those consecutive losses have greater affect on a team’s playoff chances. Qualifiers: Tennessee +10 vs. Baltimore and Denver -11½ vs. Oakland.

NEED A WINNER TONIGHT?  GET $50 WORTH OF PAID PICKS FOR FREE – NO CREDIT CARD NEEDED

Share

NFL Week 9 Trends & Angles

It was a rather nondescript Week 8 for our NFL Trends & Angles, although we still eked out a small profit going 5-4, 55.6 percent on a game-by-game basis. We had six angles last week with three of them having winning records, two of them losing and the other one splitting.

The favorites finished 8-7 in Week 8, leaving the chalk at 60-58-3, 50.1 percent ATS for the season as the books have done a great job as usual with neither side being profitable. Looking at totals, the ‘unders’ went 8-7 for the week but the ‘overs’ still have the lead this season at 64-57, 52.9 percent overall, producing just a miniscule profit at -110 odds.

Now we move onward and upward to Week 9, and those of you that have followed us in the past know that the majority of our angles will be contrarian in nature and not for the feint of heart, as many of them will point to live underdogs and live ‘unders’. Ironically our leading angle is again our only angle that points exclusively to favorites, but the rest of this week’s angles fit the usual ugly dog mode.

The records for all of our angles will only go back to 2005 going forward the rest of the year as that gives us a large enough sampling for full-season trends without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games less than ideal.

Finally, you will occasionally see angles that refer to Good Teams and/or Bad Teams. As a reminder, we are not using those terms subjectively, but rather, Good Teams are strictly defined as teams that have won at least 10 of their last 16 games straight up and Bad Teams are defined as teams that have lost at least 10 of their last 16 games straight up.

We are again presenting six angles this week, although only three of them are carried over from last week, as we have dusted off three more angles we have not used in a while. So without further ado, here are our NFL Trends & Angles for Week 9, with all records being for the last nine seasons since 2005 plus the first eight weeks of this year.

WANT $50 IN PICKS FROM THE PRO’S?   CLICK HERE AND GET SET UP FREE (NO CREDIT CARD REQUIRED)

Play on any favorite coming off of a bye week (98-60-5, 62.0% ATS): This is one of the few angles we use that is not a contrarian one in nature, but the winning percentage over a nice sampling justifies us using it. NFL teams that have had an extra week of preparation time have had a nice advantage in recent years, and prep time aside, the added time off also oftentimes allows any injured players the teams may have some extra recovery time, which is an added bonus. Qualifiers: San Francisco -9 and New York Giants -3 (Monday).

Play on any road underdog coming off of a road loss (160-97-5, 62.3% ATS): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started  to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs, and this angle also adds in the motivation off wanting to bounce back after a loss. Qualifiers: Baltimore +2, Oakland +15, San Diego +2½, St. Louis +9 and Indianapolis +3 (Monday).

Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (202-142-6, 58.7% ATS): This one is similar to the previous angle, except that the team coming off of the road game in now facing a familiar conference foe, which lessens the travel effect since the team usually knows how to attack the foe and what to expect on defense, and it also does not matter if the team won or lost its previous road game. Qualifiers: Baltimore +2, San Diego +2½, St. Louis +9 and Washington +2.

Play on any Bad Team in division road games off of a straight up loss by more than seven points (60-40-2, 60.0% ATS): This is an angle that nicely combines several little angles that have been working well for contrarians. For starters, three reasons why the pubic tend to shy away from these teams thus allowing the oddsmakers to shade the line are that, well, they are Bad Teams to begin with, they are probably in bad current form coming off of a loss and they are now on the road, where the public hardly ever backs losing teams. But on the flip side, dregs at the professional level are capable of improvement taking on familiar division foes. Qualifier: St. Louis +9.

Play on any Bad Team as a road underdog of +7½ or more that was an underdog in each of its last four games (63-45-1, 58.3% ATS): Playing this angle may take some courage as it often points you to the worst teams in the league, and as rather big road underdogs no less! But that is precisely the point as these teams often offer great value with no novice bettors wanting any part of them, as evidenced by the excellent winning percentage over a sampling of over 100 games. Qualifiers: Jacksonville +12½, Oakland +15 and St. Louis +9.

Play against any home team coming off of two or more road losses (96-69-7, 58.2% ATS): Many times, teams coming off of consecutive road losses but returning home are actually overvalued because some people expect them to suddenly play better in front of their home fans. However, these are often bad teams that don’t enjoy as much of a home field advantage anyway, and this angle becomes even more effective as the season goes along when those consecutive losses have greater affect on a team’s playoff chances. Qualifier: Indianapolis +3 vs. New York Giants (Monday).

WANT $50 IN PICKS FROM THE PRO’S?   CLICK HERE AND GET SET UP FREE (NO CREDIT CARD REQUIRED)

Share

Next Page »

css.php