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Sweet 16 & Elite 8 Trends & Angles

We have profiled all the seeds for every round of the NCAA Tournament over the last 12 years, and following a wild opening week here in 2013 that saw top-seeded Gonzaga suffer an early exit and three double-digit seeds advance through, this week’s Trends & Angles looks at the trends for the Sweet 16 on Thursday and Friday and for the Elite Eight on Saturday and Sunday.

All quoted ATS records are for the last 12 NCAA Tournaments since 2001. Note that no 14-seed or 16-seed has gone as far as the Sweet 16 in the last 12 seasons, and until now no 15-seed had either, but that has changed.

One-seeds: There were 43 top seeds that advanced to the Sweet 16 the last 12 years and they went 35-8 straight up, including 3-1 straight up last year with Michigan State being the only top seed to fall vs. Louisville. However, those one-seeds went only 1-3 ATS last season. The one-seeds are 23-20, 53.5 percent record ATS in this round.

On the other hand, the Elite Eight has been more of a graveyard of one-seeds, as they are a modest 18-17 straight up in this round with two more defeats last season when North Carolina lost to Kansas and Syracuse fell to Ohio State. It is no wonder then that all four one-seeds have reached the Final Four only once. One-seeds are a terrible 13-22 ATS in the Elite Eight.

Two-seeds: The good news regarding two-seeds is that they went 22-8 straight up in the Sweet 16 the last 12 years. The not so good news is that they were only 15-14-1 ATS in those games. The two-seeds 2-0 straight up but only 1-1 ATS last year, as Kansas failed to cover the spread in a three-point win over NC State.

The news does not get too much better for two-seeds in the Elite Eight, where they went only 12-10 straight up and 11-10-1 ATS since 2001, although to their credit the two-seeds went 2-0 both straight up and ATS last year while both knocking off one-seeds. Perhaps most interesting is the fact that the two-seeds are 1-5-1 ATS when facing lower seeds in the Elite Eight the last 12 seasons, but after last season they are now 10-5, 66.7 percent both straight up and ATS when matched up vs. one-seeds!

Three-seeds: The 29 three-seeds that reached the Sweet 16 since 2001 went an identical 14-15 both straight up and ATS, including going 1-1 straight up and 0-2 ATS last season, as Baylor failed to cover the spread in a five-point win over Xavier.

Three-seeds that advanced to the Elite Eight went 7-7 both straight up and ATS. Believe it or not, only one of those three-seeds was a favorite, and that was in 2011 when Connecticut was favored by three points over the five-seeds from Arizona and failed to cover in a 65-63 victory. That means the three-seeds went an impressive 6-7 straight up as underdogs in the Elite Eight over the last 12 tournaments.

Four-seeds: A surprisingly low 19 four-seeds advanced to the Sweet 16 since 2001, and they continued to under-achieve by going a dismal 5-14 straight up. Granted, Louisville bucked this trend last year by upsetting Michigan State, but Wisconsin and Indiana were not as fortunate, although Wisconsin covered vs. Syracuse. It should be noted that the four-seeds did go 10-9 ATS in this round however, so not all the losses were routs.

The four-seeds then went on to go 4-1 straight up and 3-2 ATS in the Elite Eight. Louisville won as a four-seed in this round last year by overcoming a double-digit deficit to beat Florida as a scant one-point underdog.

Five-seeds: Even though the 12-seeds upsetting the five-seeds were the most common upsets in the Round of 64 the last 12 seasons, the five-seeds that survived their first game actually did quite well in the following round, with 18 of them advancing to the Sweet 16. Unfortunately, most of the fives met their demise here going 5-13 straight up, although to their credit, they went 10-8 ATS. Most recently, Arizona won straight up as a five in this round in 2011 as it upset Duke.

In one of the bigger oddities of the NCAA Tournament, the five-seeds that reached the Elite Eight went a perfect 5-0 ATS the last 12 seasons. The first four five-seeds all won outright to reach the Final Four until Arizona became the first covering five-seed not to win outright when it fell two points shy against Connecticut.

Six-seeds: There were 12 six-seeds to reach the Sweet 16 the last 12 years, and they went 3-9 both straight up and ATS. Cincinnati was the latest victim while getting blown out by Ohio State last year.

The three six-seeds that reached the Elite Eight since 2001 all lost outright, but they did go 2-1 ATS. That lone ATS loss was by the last six-seed to reach the Elite Eight, which was Tennessee in 2010.

Seven-seeds: Nine seven-seeds have advanced to the Sweet 16 since 2001, and they went 4-5 both straight up and ATS. The latest seven-seed to get this far was a success though, as Florida won and covered vs. Marquette last season.

The Elite Eight was the end of the road for the four seven-seeds that got that far, although they did go 2-2 ATS. Florida was actually a tiny -1 favorite when it lost to Louisville last year.

Eight-seeds: Eight-seeds have obviously had a tough time reaching the Sweet 16 since those that have reached the Round of 32 were always matched up with the one-seeds that round. Still, three eight-seeds did manage to reach the Sweet 16 and they actually went 2-1 straight up, as Butler in 2011 followed in the footsteps of the 2004 Alabama Crimson Tide, who beat fifth-seeded Syracuse in this round. No eight-seeds advanced this far last year.

Butler became the first eight-seed to reach the Final Four over our 12-year study, as Alabama was routed by Connecticut in 2004.

Nine-seeds: The nine seeds that advanced to the Round of 32 were also all paired up with one-seeds, and only two of them survived. Both then lost straight up and ATS in the Sweet 16, with the most recent being Northern Iowa in 2010.

10-seeds: A respectable total of nine 10-seeds have advanced to the Sweet 16 the last 12 years, and they went 2-7 straight up and 4-5 ATS this round. Xavier covered the spread last season while losing to Baylor.

The two 10-seeds that reached the Elite Eight both lost straight up, although they did go 1-1 ATS with Stephen Curry’s Davidson team nearly shocking Kansas in a two-point loss in 2008.

11-seeds: There were seven 11-seeds to reach the Sweet 16 the last 12 seasons and those giant-slayers went 3-4 straight up but 4-3 ATS. There was an 11-seed in this round last year as NC State covered ATS but got nipped by Kansas 60-57.

The 11-seeds then went a surprising 2-1 straight up and ATS in Elite Eight, with VCU (2011) and George Mason (2006) both being members of the CAA when they made their surprising Final Four runs.

12-seeds: An abnormally high nine 12-seeds advanced to the Sweet 16 over the last 12 tournaments, but most of those Cinderella runs ended here with only one of those winning outright while going 2-7 ATS. Richmond was the latest 11th-seeded casualty in a blowout loss to Kansas in 2011. One of the three aforementioned double-digit seeds to advance to this round this season is 12th seeded Oregon, which draws number one overall seed Louisville on Friday.

The Missouri Tigers were the only 12-seed to advance to the Elite Eight way back in 2002, and they then pushed the six-point spread in an 81-75 loss to Oklahoma.

13-seeds: Only two 13-seed reached the Sweet 16 since 2001, and while they went 0-2 straight up, they went 1-1 ATS with Ohio getting the cover last year vs. North Carolina. This year, 13th seeded La Salle has advanced despite having to play an extra game during the First Four.

15-seeds: Congratulations to the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles for becoming the first 15-seed in history to advance to the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Basketball Tournament!

March Madness Trends & Angles

The 2013 NCAA Tournament kicks off with the First Four on Tuesday and Wednesday, March 19th and 20th, setting up the main bracket of 64 beginning Thursday, March 21st. Prepare for the first weekend of the Big Dance with this week’s March Madness Trends & Angles, as we look at seeding trends for  the second round (round of 64 Thursday and Friday) and the third round (round of 32 Saturday and Sunday). 

We have profiled all the seeds for every round going back the last 12 NCAA Tournaments, so all quoted ATS records in this piece are since to 2001 NCAA Tournament.

One-seeds: Since the seeding process began, a 16-seed had still never beaten a top seed so naturally the one-seeds are 48-0 straight up in the last 12 years while winning by an average margin of +25.7 points. The top seeds won their four second round games last season by an average of “only” +15.8 points though with NC Ashville becoming the first 16-seed to lose by single-digits over the 12 years vs. Syracuse. The one-seeds went just 2-2 ATS in the round of 64 last season, bringing them to 25-21-2, 54.2 percent ATS vs. the 16-seeds since 2001.

In the round of 32, the one-seeds went 43-5 straight up the last 12 years with the fifth loss coming two years ago when Pittsburgh fell to Butler. The closest call last season was when Michigan State only beat Saint Louis by four points, making the Spartans the only one-seed not the cover in the third round of 2012. Overall, top seeds are 27-21, 56.3 percent ATS in this round with an average winning margin of +12.4 points. It is also interesting to note that the ‘over’ is a lucrative 33-13-2, 71.7 percent in games involving one seeds during the round of 32 the last 12 tournaments, including going 3-1 last year with the only ‘under’ being by one-half point (Syracuse vs. Kansas State).

Two-seeds: The two-seeds were 43-1 straight up in the round of 64 since 2001 prior to last year, but you can now make it 45-3 as Norfolk State stunned Missouri and Lehigh shocked Duke last season to join Hampton, which beat Iowa State back in the 2001 tournament. There have not been as many blowouts by the two-seeds as by the ones in their first games, as besides the three losses, 12 of the 45 wins have been by single-digits. As a result, the two-seeds have not been great ATS in their tournament openers, sitting at 22-26, 45.8 percent.

Surprisingly the 45 second-seeds that advanced to the round of 32 went only 30-15 straight up the last 12 years despite being favored in ever single one of those games, and although both won last season, neither one covered the spread to fall to 21-23-1 ATS, as eventual national finalist Kansas only beat Purdue by three points and eventual Final Four participant Ohio State only got by Gonzaga by seven.

Three-seeds: Because of the two shocking upsets of the two-seeds last season, the three-seeds now have an identical 45-3 straight up record as the twos in their opening games, now actually called the second round, and they have been very good ATS at 27-19-2, 58.7 percent. The three-seeds swept 4-0 while going 3-1 ATS in the second round last season with the only non-cover coming when Florida State nipped St. Bonaventure by three points.

Those 45 winning three-seeds have gone on to go 29-16 straight up in the round of 32, but they went only 2-2 last season with Florida State losing to Cincinnati and Georgetown falling to NC State.. They are 24-19-2, 55.8 percent ATS overall in the last 12 seasons in this round of 32, now the third round.

Four-seeds: This is the point where potential upsets become more common when filling out your brackets. While the top three seeds are a combined 138-6 straight up in the round of 64 since 2001, four-seeds have gone 36-12 with the 12th defeat coming last year when Ohio surprised Michigan. The other three four-seeds all covered the number in their opening games last season, and that leaves the fours at 25-23 ATS in the second round.

The 36 four-seeds that did manage to reach the round of 32 are a disappointing 19-17 straight up and 14-21-1, 40.0 percent ATS in this round, and although they went 3-0 straight up and 2-1 ATS last season, all three wins were by three points or less as Indiana failed to cover in a two-point win over VCU, Louisville beat New Mexico by three points as a two-point favorite and Wisconsin beat Vanderbilt by three points as a one-point favorite.

Five-seeds: It seems that a 12-seed beats a five-seed every year in the round of 64, and that is actually a reality as the fives have only gone 28-20 straight up over the last 12 years while going a losing 23-25 ATS in those games. There were two more 12-seed vs. five-seed upsets last season with VCU beating Wichita State and South Florida knocking off Temple.

Now, the 28 five-seeds that have avoided the upsets in their openers the last 12 seasons have gone on to go a nice 18-10 straight up as well as 14-12-2, 53.9 ATS in the round of 32, but both five-seeds that advanced this far lost both outright and ATS last season, although as mentioned earlier, those losses by New Mexico and Vanderbilt were by just three points each.

Six-seeds: The six-seeds have actually been one game better straight up than the five-seeds in the round of 64 in the 12 tournaments, going 29-19 on the court. However, the sixes matched the fives last season in going an identical 2-2 both straight up and ATS, and that drops the six-seeds to 23-24-1 ATS this round over the last 12 years.

The 29 six-seeds that advanced to the round of 32 have proceeded to go just 12-17 straight up and 13-15-1 ATS. Keep in mind that when the seeding has held though, the six seeds have been matched up with the better three-seeds in this round. Such was the case for the two six-seeds that reached this round last year, and they split 1-1 straight up and ATS as Cincinnati upset Florida State but Murray State saw its dream season end vs. third seeded Marquette.

Seven-seeds: Like the six-seeds, the seven-seeds have gone an identical 29-19 straight up in the round of 64, but the sevens have been better bets at 27-21, 56.3 percent ATS. Seventh-seeds have been especially strong as favorites in their opening game, going a rather lucrative 22-13, 62.9 percent ATS in that role.

Unfortunately, seven-seeds that have advanced are just 9-20 straight up in the round of 32, although it is worth noting that eight of the nine wins were outright upsets of two-seeds. Seven-seeds also went 2-0 ATS last season, with Florida having the good fortune to draw 15th seeded Norfolk State for a blowout win and Gonzaga covering in a loss to Ohio State That leaves seven-seeds at 15-13-1 ATS in the third round.

Eight-seeds: The eight-seed vs. nine-seed matchups should theoretically be the best matchups in the round of 64, and sure enough those games have indeed been the most competitive with the eight-seeds holding a slim 25-23 straight up edge the last 12 tournaments. Those seeds were dead even on the court before the eights took three of the four matchups last season. The eight vs. nine matchup is now dead even from a betting perspective the last 12 years though, with both seeds sitting at 23-23-2 ATS.

The 25 eight-seeds that have advanced to the round of 32 have always gotten matched up with one-seeds, so it makes perfect sense that the eights are 3-22 straight up and 10-15 ATS on opening weekend. The last win by an eight-seed in the third round was by Butler over top-seeded Pittsburgh two years ago, but the three eight-seeds that advanced to Saturday or Sunday last season were all routed while going 0-3 ATS.

Nine-seeds: The 22 nine-seeds that advanced to the round of 32 have also obviously all been matched up with one-seeds, and they have gone 2-21 straight up, although they are a quasi-respectable 11-12 ATS after the one nine-seed to advance last year, Saint Louis, covered while throwing a scare into Michigan State in a narrow 65-61 defeat.

10-seeds: In one of the pleasant stunners of the entire tournament, 10-seeds have gone a surprising 9-10 straight up when advancing to the second of 32. There was another 10-seed winner last year, but this one may deserve an asterisk as Xavier drew 15th seeded Lehigh. The 10-seeds did go 2-0 ATS though with Purdue covering in a three-point loss to Kansas, putting the tens at a nice 11-8, 57.9 percent ATS the last 12 seasons.

11-seeds: The 11-seeds that pulled upsets in the round of 64 are a rather nondescript 7-12 straight up and 8-10-1 ATS in the round of 32. However, three of those wins and covers by 11-seeds have come in the last two years with Marquette and VCU prevailing in 2011 and NC State upsetting Georgetown last year.

12-seeds: In another surprise, 12-seeds that have pulled off opening upsets in the last 12 tournaments have gone on to go a better than expected 9-11 straight up in the round of 32. More importantly from a betting perspective, 12-seeds are a stellar 14-6, 70.0 percent ATS in the round of 32 since 2001! They went 1-1 ATS last season, with VCU being the 12-seed that covered in a tough two-point loss to Indiana.

13-seeds: 13-seeds are just 2-10 straight up and 4-7-1 ATS when advancing to the round of 32, but the good news as the second straight up winner and latest ATS cover came last season when Ohio beat South Florida.

14-seeds: The 14-seeds that pulled upsets in the round of 64 have not won another game since 2001, going 0-3 straight up and 1-2 ATS in the round of 32. No 14-seeds got out of the second round last season.

15-seeds: The three 15-seeds in the last 12 years to advance to the round of 32 including the two last season all got thoroughly whipped, going 0-3 ATS while losing by an average of -21.7 points.

NBA Trends & Angles February 19, 2013

Because of the All-Star break, our NBA Trends & Angles from last week did not get a real chance to materialize, so we are bringing back the same angles this week with updated potential qualifiers. For the record, we did squeeze out two plays in an abbreviated week and they split 1-1 ATS.

As those of you that have followed us in the past know, the vast majority of our angles will point you to live underdogs and live ‘unders’ when we have total angles. All of our season-long trends go back to 2005-06 season, as that gives us a large enough sampling without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games less than ideal.

You will occasionally see angles that refer to Good Teams and/or Bad Teams. We are not using those terms subjectively in those contexts, but rather, Good Teams are strictly defined as teams that have won at least 21 of their last 30 games and Bad Teams are defined as teams that have lost at least 21 of their last 30 games.

So here are our NBA Trends & Angles for this week, with all records being for the last seven seasons since 2005-06 plus this season’s games through Monday, February 18th.

Play on any road team between Pick and +3½ coming off of three straight losses (102-62-2, 62.2% ATS): Teams coming off of three-game losing steaks are generally undervalued, so when these teams turn up as small underdogs or at a Pick on the road, they are usually better than their recent performances. Also, bettors tend to bet against these teams, knee-jerking to the small home favorite or better yet to the home team at Pick facing a team that has lost at least three straight. Keep an eye on: Five teams on three-game losing streaks as of February 18th are the Cleveland Cavaliers, Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, Phoenix Suns and Portland Trail Blazers.

Play on any team that failed to cover the spread by at least 20 points in its last game and is now playing a division game (81-57-1, 58.7% ATS): This contrarian angle combines several elements as losing by at least 20 points ATS often makes teams undervalued in their next game and facing familiar division opponents often makes it easier to bounce back off of sub-par performances. Keep an eye on: This is self-explanatory and easy to keep an eye on but please note that all ATS differentials are based on the closing lines at Pinnacle.

Play on any division favorite coming off of three straight ATS wins (130-91-4, 58.8% ATS): Do not adjust your sets, as this is one of our very few angles that is actually mainstream in nature. Sometimes books are simply a tad slow in compensating for improving teams, and teams on ATS winning streaks could be undervalued clubs that fit this category. Facing familiar division opponents has helped maintain that improvement, and if they are now favored, it oftentimes means that they are the better team. This angle went 0-1 ATS in the last seven days. Keep an eye on: Teams that have won three straight games ATS as of February 18th are the Miami Heat and New Orleans Hornets.

Play against any Good Team as a home favorite coming off of three road games (84-60, 58.3% ATS): Teams returning home from road trips are often lethargic and that has been especially true of Good Teams, as these teams are expected to win and have oftentimes just gone through the motions in their first home game back in an attempt to save some energy. Keep an eye on: Teams that qualify as Good Teams as of February 18th are the Denver Nuggets, Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs.

Play on any road underdog of +6 or more coming off of five ATS losses (77-52-2, 59.7% ATS): Bettors do not like betting on teams that are not covering spreads, and when teams that have been burning money turn up as decided road underdogs, those people cannot wait to get some money down on the home chalk. Well, here is a nice case of regression to the mean, as well as bookmakers shading the lines a bit to give the ugly underdogs value. Keep an eye on: Three teams already at five straight ATS losses as of February 18th are the Golden State Warriors, Milwaukee Bucks and Portland Trail Blazers.

Play the ‘under’ in division games if the home team went ‘under’ in its last four games (68-46, 59.6%): Bettors love to bend on ‘overs’ and they tend to overreact to ‘over’ streaks while hardly batting an eye when it comes to ‘under’ streaks. In fact, many are so stubborn that they continue to bet the ‘over’ even when the home team, which more often than not is the team that controls the tempo, has shown a strong propensity for going ‘under’. Also, ‘under’ streaks are more likely to continue in the all-important division games, which are usually played closer to the vest to begin with. Keep an eye on: Two teams on four-game ‘under’ streaks as of February 18th are the Charlotte Bobcats and Milwaukee Bucks.

Play against any home team that has won its last three games straight up and is now facing a Bad Team (135-85, 61.4% ATS): This combines two factors that lead to some counterintuitive value, as you are going against a hot team and simultaneously playing on a team that has lost at least 70 percent of its last 30 games and that is usually avoided by bettors, allowing the books to pad the lines a tad. This angle describes the Letdown Theory to a tee, as the streaking team is filled with confidence and feels that it can conserve some energy and still come out on top vs. a Bad Team, especially while playing at home. This angle is 14-8, 63.6 percent ATS for this season. Keep an eye on: Bad Teams as of February 18th are the Charlotte Bobcats, Minnesota Timberwolves, Orlando Magic and Phoenix Suns.

Play against any Bad Team as a home favorite following a straight up win (79-54-3, 59.4% ATS): Let’s call this angle semi-contrarian. On the one hand, a Bad Team should have trouble winning back-to-back games. On the other hand, another school of thought is that the team is playing better if it is coming off of a win, and if it is now favored, that newfound success is expected to continue. The record of this angle though shows the former to be true. This angle went 1-0 in the last seven days.

NBA Trends & Angles February 6, 2013

As those of you that have followed us in the past know, the vast majority of our angles will point you to live underdogs and live ‘unders’ when we have total angles. All of our season-long trends go back to 2005-06 season, as that gives us a large enough sampling without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games less than ideal. 

You will occasionally see angles that refer to Good Teams and/or Bad Teams. We are not using those terms subjectively in those contexts, but rather, Good Teams are strictly defined as teams that have won at least 21 of their last 30 games and Bad Teams are defined as teams that have lost at least 21 of their last 30 games.

So here are our NBA Trends & Angles for this week, with all records being for the last seven seasons since 2005-06 plus this season’s games through Monday, February 4th.

Play on any division favorite coming off of three straight ATS wins (130-90-4, 59.1% ATS): Do not adjust your sets, as this is one of our very few angles that is actually mainstream in nature. Sometimes books are simply a tad slow in compensating for improving teams, and teams on ATS winning streaks could be undervalued clubs that fit this category. Facing familiar division opponents has helped maintain that improvement, and if they are now favored, it oftentimes means that they are the better team. This angle went 1-0 ATS the last seven days. Keep an eye on: Teams that have won three straight games ATS as of February 4th are the Boston Celtics, Indiana Pacers, New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers.

Play against any Good Team as a home favorite coming off of three road games (84-60, 58.3% ATS): Teams returning home from road trips are often lethargic and that has been especially true of Good Teams, as these teams are expected to win and have oftentimes just gone through the motions in their first home game back in an attempt to save some energy. This angle went 0-1 ATS the last seven days. Keep an eye on: Teams that qualify as Good Teams as of February 4th are the Denver Nuggets, Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs.

Play on any road underdog of +6 or more coming off of five ATS losses (77-52-2, 59.7% ATS): Bettors do not like betting on teams that are not covering spreads, and when teams that have been burning money turn up as decided road underdogs, those people cannot wait to get some money down on the home chalk. Well, here is a nice case of regression to the mean, as well as bookmakers shading the lines a bit to give the ugly underdogs value. This angle went 1-2 ATS over the past week. Keep an eye on: The longest ATS losing streak in the NBA as of February 4th is only three games by the Los Angeles Clippers and Milwaukee Bucks.

Play on any conference road team that has lost its last six games straight up (117-81-3, 59.1% ATS): Bettors also hate playing teams on straight up losing streaks, especially on the road, so again the books can shade their lines a bit. When these teams do rise up and turn in competitive efforts or break their losing streaks outright, it is often vs. familiar conference opponents as this record indicates. This angle went 1-3 ATS the last seven days. Keep an eye on: The Orlando Magic are already beyond six straight losses while the Charlotte Bobcats, New Orleans Hornets and Sacramento Kings are next in line at four straight losses.

Play the ‘under’ in division games if the home team went ‘under’ in its last four games (68-46, 59.6%): Bettors love to bend on ‘overs’ and they tend to overreact to ‘over’ streaks while hardly batting an eye when it comes to ‘under’ streaks. In fact, many are so stubborn that they continue to bet the ‘over’ even when the home team, which more often than not is the team that controls the tempo, has shown a strong propensity for going ‘under’. Also, ‘under’ streaks are more likely to continue in the all-important division games, which are usually played closer to the vest to begin with. Keep an eye on: The Charlotte Bobcats and Sacramento Kings are already on four-game ‘under’ streaks while the New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers and Toronto Raptors are at three games.

Play against any home team that has won its last three games straight up and is now facing a Bad Team (135-85, 61.8% ATS): This combines two factors that lead to some counterintuitive value, as you are going against a hot team and simultaneously playing on a team that has lost at least 70 percent of its last 30 games and that is usually avoided by bettors, allowing the books to pad the lines a tad. This angle describes the Letdown Theory to a tee, as the streaking team is filled with confidence and feels that it can conserve some energy and still come out on top vs. a Bad Team, especially while playing at home. This angle went 1-2 ATS over the past week, although it is still 14-8, 63.6 percent ATS for this season. Keep an eye on: Bad Teams as of February 4th are the Charlotte Bobcats, Orlando Magic and Phoenix Suns.

Play against any Bad Team as a home favorite following a straight up win (78-54-3, 59.1% ATS): Let’s call this angle semi-contrarian. On the one hand, a Bad Team should have trouble winning back-to-back games. On the other hand, another school of thought is that the team is playing better if it is coming off of a win, and if it is now favored, that newfound success is expected to continue. The record of this angle though shows the former to be true. This angle went 1-0 ATS over the past week. Keep an eye on: The Orlando Magic have a home game vs. Portland on Sunday.

NFL Trends & Angles – Super Bowl XLVII Props

Not all of the betting action will be on  who wins or covers the game or on the total either, as Super Bowl props have become increasingly popular over the years, so much so that there are more props available on this game than in any other NFL game all year. 

Here are some of our favorite props for this season that may be worth a tumble.

San Francisco First Scoring Play of the Game will be Field Goal (+160): We think this is a great price under the circumstances. While both quarterbacks are making their Super Bow debuts, Colin Kaepernick is by far the younger quarterback that did not start his first NFL game until Week 11 of this season, so anticipating some early jitters, the 49ers may turn conservative the first time they enter the red zone and just settle for putting points on the board before setting Kaepernick loose later on. This also presents an early opportunity for struggling kicker David Akers to gain some confidence. He better make the kick though because if not, San Francisco will not be so conservative the second time around. Still, we think the +160 makes this worth the risk.

Colin Kaepernick passing yards ‘under’ 218½ (+135): As mentioned, the Niners may nurse Colin along a bit early, but when they do turn him loose, we think it will be more with his legs than with his arm. Yes he had a sharp passing game against the Falcons in the NFC Championship Game, but bear in mind that Atlanta was well prepared for the read option after facing it the previous week vs. Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. The Ravens are not as familiar with it so if Kaepernick runs it as effectively as he did when he set an NFL single-game rushing record in his first playoff game against the Packers, then look for a run-heavy San Francisco attack.

Baltimore Defense Total Sacks in Game ‘over’ 2 ( -115 ): The Baltimore defense lacked its usual pass rush during the first 10 weeks or so of the regular season, but remember that Terrell Suggs was out to begin the year and then Ray Lewis went down before Suggs made his seasonal debut. The pass rush unproved toward the end of the year as Paul Kruger developed into one of the better rush linebackers in the NFL with 7½ of his 8½ sacks for the season from Week 10 forward. Then when Lewis retuned for the playoffs, it marked the first time he and Suggs played together all year, and with Kruger now also in the mix, Baltimore is starting to pressure opposing quarterbacks again.

Baltimore Player to Score Team’s First Touchdown Dennis Pitta ( +500 ): The 49ers had one of the best defenses in the NFL, ranking third in rushing defense and seventh in passing defense, but if they has a minor weakness, it was defending pass catching tight ends. Remember that Tony Gonzalez has eight catchers for 78 yards and a touchdown in the NFC Championship. Pitta has 153 receiving yards and two touchdowns in three playoff games and he is a nice red zone target. This looks like a nice pop at +500.

Who will have more on Sunday, February 3rd – Sidney Crosby Points (Goals + Assists) or Colin Kaepernick Touchdown Passes? Crosby ( -115 ): Not all Super Bowl props have to do strictly with the game, and cross-sport props like these are always fun to handicap, so let is give it a whirl. Kaepernick has thrown more than two touchdown passes in a game just once since becoming the starter, he is facing a Baltimore pass defense that is playing its best football of the season right now and the 49ers figure to employ a run-heavy attack. Crosby’s Penguins are facing the Washington Capitals, against whom Crosby has 35 points in 22 career games, the Caps are 27th in the NHL in scoring defense yielding 3.57 goals per game and  their number one goalie Michal Neuvirth has an ordinary save percentage of .899. We’ll take our chances with Sid the Kid.

Jan 30 – Feb 6: NBA Trends & Angles

For the fourth straight week since we introduced our NBA Trends & Angles for 2013 one month ago, the angles had a winning, low-volume week, this time going 3-2 ATS. That brings our angles to a sparkling 12-6, 66.7 percent ATS so far this year. The total volume from these angles should increase as the season goes on.

As those of you that have followed us in the past know, the vast majority of our angles will point you to live underdogs and live ‘unders’ when we have total angles. All of our season-long trends go back to 2005-06 season, as that gives us a large enough sampling without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games less than ideal. 

You will occasionally see angles that refer to Good Teams and/or Bad Teams. We are not using those terms subjectively in those contexts, but rather, Good Teams are strictly defined as teams that have won at least 21 of their last 30 games and Bad Teams are defined as teams that have lost at least 21 of their last 30 games. 

Finally, while the vast majority of our angles are contrarian as we mentioned, we lead off this week with an angle that is not and yet has continued to have amazing success. 

So here are our NBA Trends & Angles for this week, with all records being for the last seven seasons since 2005-06 plus this season’s games through Monday, January 28th.

Play on any division favorite coming off of three straight ATS wins (129-90-4, 58.9% ATS): Do not adjust your sets, as this is one of our very few angles that is actually mainstream in nature. Sometimes books are simply a tad slow in compensating for improving teams, and teams on ATS winning streaks could be undervalued clubs that fit this category. Facing familiar division opponents has helped maintain that improvement, and if they are now favored, it oftentimes means that they are the better team. Keep an eye on: Teams that have won three straight games ATS as of January 28th are the Atlanta Hawks, Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets.

Play against any Good Team as a home favorite coming off of three road games (84-59, 58.7% ATS): Teams returning home from road trips are often lethargic and that has been especially true of Good Teams, as these teams are expected to win and have oftentimes just gone through the motions in their first home game back in an attempt to save some energy. Keep an eye on: One definite qualifier will be the Memphis Grizzlies Thursday when they visit an Oklahoma City Thunder team that is a Good Team that will be a home favorite following a road trip.

Play on any road underdog of +6 or more coming off of five ATS losses (76-50-2, 60.3% ATS): Bettors do not like betting on teams that are not covering spreads, and when teams that have been burning money turn up as decided road underdogs, those people cannot wait to get some money down on the home chalk. Well, here is a nice case of regression to the mean, as well as bookmakers shading the lines a bit to give the ugly underdogs value. This angle went 0-1 over the past week. Keep an eye on: The Orlando Magic are already at five straight ATS losses, while the Portland Trail Blazers are next in line with a three-game ATS losing streak.

Play on any conference road team that has lost its last six games straight up (116-78-3, 59.8% ATS): Bettors also hate playing teams on straight up losing streaks, especially on the road, so again the books can shade their lines a bit. When these teams do rise up and turn in competitive efforts or break their losing streaks outright, it is often vs. familiar conference opponents as this record indicates. Keep an eye on: One definite qualifier for the angle is the Orlando Magic on Wednesday and the next longest current losing streak belongs to the Minnesota Timberwolves at four games.

Play the ‘under’ in division games if the home team went ‘under’ in its last four games (68-46, 59.6%): Bettors love to bend on ‘overs’ and they tend to overreact to ‘over’ streaks while hardly batting an eye when it comes to ‘under’ streaks. In fact, many are so stubborn that they continue to bet the ‘over’ even when the home team, which more often than not is the team that controls the tempo, has shown a strong propensity for going ‘under’. Also, ‘under’ streaks are more likely to continue in the all-important division games, which are usually played closer to the vest to begin with. This angle went 1-1 in the past week. Keep an eye on: While no team is currently on a four-game ‘under’ streak, the Oklahoma City Thunder are at three games.

Play against any home team that has won its last three games straight up and is now facing a Bad Team (134-83, 61.8% ATS): This combines two factors that lead to some counterintuitive value, as you are going against a hot team and simultaneously playing on a team that has lost at least 70 percent of its last 30 games and that is usually avoided by bettors, allowing the books to pad the lines a tad. This angle describes the Letdown Theory to a tee, as the streaking team is filled with confidence and feels that it can conserve some energy and still come out on top vs. a Bad Team, especially while playing at home. This angle just went a perfect 2-0 for the second straight week, bringing it to 13-6, 68.4 percent for the season. Keep an eye on: Bad Teams as of January 28th are the Charlotte Bobcats, Orlando Magic and Phoenix Suns.

Play against any Bad Team as a home favorite following a straight up win (77-54-3, 58.8% ATS): Let’s call this angle semi-contrarian. On the one hand, a Bad Team should have trouble winning back-to-back games. On the other hand, another school of thought is that the team is playing better if it is coming off of a win, and if it is now favored, that newfound success is expected to continue. The record of this angle though shows the former to be true. Keep an eye on: The Phoenix Suns have a home game coming up on Friday.

NBA Trends & Angles

For the third straight week since we introduced our NBA Trends & Angles for 2013 three weeks ago, the angles had a winning, low-volume week, this time going 4-2 ATS over the last seven days. That brings our angles to a sparkling 9-4, 69.2 percent ATS so far this year. The volume from these angles has been slowly increasing each week and will continue to do so as the season goes on.

As those of you that have followed us in the past know, the vast majority of our angles will point you to live underdogs and live ‘unders’ when we have total angles. All of our season-long trends go back to 2005-06 season, as that gives us a large enough sampling without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games less than ideal.

You will occasionally see angles that refer to Good Teams and/or Bad Teams. We are not using those terms subjectively in those contexts, but rather, Good Teams are strictly defined as teams that have won at least 21 of their last 30 games and Bad Teams are defined as teams that have lost at least 21 of their last 30 games.

So here are our NBA Trends & Angles for this week, with all records being for the last seven seasons since 2005-06 plus this season’s games through Sunday, January 20th.

Play against any Bad Team as a home favorite following a straight up win (77-54-3, 58.8% ATS): Let’s call this angle semi-contrarian. On the one hand, a Bad Team should have trouble winning back-to-back games. On the other hand, another school of thought is that the team is playing better if it is coming off of a win, and if it is now favored, that newfound success is expected to continue. The record of this angle though shows the former to be true. Keep an eye on: Washington could possibly be a home favorite over Minnesota on Friday and Charlotte could b a home favorite over that same Minnesota team on Saturday, so see how the Wizards and Bobcats do in their last game prior to those contests as the Timberwolves can be live dogs both times.

Play against any Good Team as a home favorite coming off of three road games (84-59, 58.7% ATS): Teams returning home from road trips are often lethargic and that has been especially true of Good Teams, as these teams are expected to win and have oftentimes just gone through the motions in their first home game back in an attempt to save some energy. The angle split 1-1 in the last seven days. Keep an eye on: One Good Team currently on a road trip is the Indiana Pacers.

Play the ‘under’ in division games if the home team went ‘under’ in its last four games (67-45, 59.8%): Bettors love to bend on ‘overs’ and they tend to overreact to ‘over’ streaks while hardly batting an eye when it comes to ‘under’ streaks. In fact, many are so stubborn that they continue to bet the ‘over’ even when the home team, which more often than not is the team that controls the tempo, has shown a strong propensity for going ‘under’. Also, ‘under’ streaks are more likely to continue in the all-important division games, which are usually played closer to the vest to begin with. Keep an eye on: One definite qualifying ‘under’ is New Orleans at San Antonio on Wednesday. Besides the Spurs, two other teams currently on four-game ‘under’ streaks are the Memphis Grizzlies and Phoenix Suns.

Play on any road underdog of +6 or more coming off of five ATS losses (76-49-2, 60.8% ATS): Bettors do not like betting on teams that are not covering spreads, and when teams that have been burning money turn up as decided road underdogs, those people cannot wait to get some money down on the home chalk. Well, here is a nice case of regression to the mean, as well as bookmakers shading the lines a bit to give the ugly underdogs value. This angle went 1-0 in the last seven days. Keep an eye on: The Houston Rockets are already at five straight ATS losses. Three teams on four-game ATS losing streaks as of Monday are Boston, Oklahoma City and Portland.

Play on any conference road team that has lost its last six games straight up (116-78-3, 59.8% ATS): Bettors also hate playing teams on straight up losing streaks, especially on the road, so again the books can shade their lines a bit. When these teams do rise up and turn in competitive efforts or break their losing streaks outright, it is often vs. familiar conference opponents as this record indicates. This angle went 0-1 in the last seven days. Keep an eye on: The Portland Trail Blazers have already reached six straight losses, but the next longest streak as of Monday is only three games by Boston and the Lakers.

Play against any home team that has won its last three games straight up and is now facing a Bad Team (132-83, 60.8% ATS): This combines two factors that lead to some counterintuitive value, as you are going against a hot team and simultaneously playing on a team that has lost at least 70 percent of its last 30 games and that is usually avoided by bettors, allowing the books to pad the lines a tad. This angle describes the Letdown Theory to a tee, as the streaking team is filled with confidence and feels that it can conserve some energy and still come out on top vs. a Bad Team, especially while playing at home. This angle went a perfect 2-0 over the last seven days. Keep an eye on: Bad Teams as of January 20th are the Charlotte Bobcats, Cleveland Cavaliers, Phoenix Suns and Washington Wizards.

 

NFL Trends & Angles – Conference Championship Round

After the ‘unders; swept 4-0 in the wild card round, the ‘overs’ got their revenge by sweeping 4-0 in the divisional round last week. The favorites and underdogs split 2-2 ATS after the favorites swept the previous week, and the public went 2-2 on the sides. 

Now those two things usually go hand in hand as the public is usually on the favorites, especially with so many novices coming out of the woodwork to usually bet on playoff favorites. However, there were actually two very public underdogs last week, but they split 1-1 accounting for the identical 2-2 records for the favorites and the public.

The sportsbooks made a killing on Saturday as the public lost both games, first with the favored Broncos and then with one of the public underdogs in Green Bay. However, the “squares” got it back on Sunday with the other public dog, the Seahawks, covering by one-half point and the popular favorites New England also winning handily.

Let us now move on to our NFL Trends & Angles for the two championship games this week. Now, because there are a grand total of only 11 post-season games every year, it is hard to get as large a sample size as we do during the regular season, and also unlike the regular season NFL Trends & Angles that all go back to 2005, our playoff angles have varying lengths out of necessity to at least get a decent sampling.

So here are our NFL Trends & Angles for the championship round, with the length of each Trends & Angle specified.

Play the ‘over’ in any playoff game if the home favorite went ‘over’ by at least 10 points in its previous game (20-13-1, 60.6% since 1999): This is one angle that is actually not contrarian, and it actually points to ‘overs’, which the public likes to bet on. Books have obviously tried to counteract this by inflating totals, but this is one angle that they have not quite adjusted enough for. If a team is a home favorite, it has the better chance of controlling the pace of the game, and if that team went ‘over’ by at least 10 points in its last game, it is more often than not a good offensive team. Both championship games qualify this week, which could lead to some exciting football. Qualifying ‘overs’: San Francisco at Atlanta and Baltimore at New England.

Play against any playoff home team that lost its last game against the spread (28-19, 59.6.0% ATS since 2002):Way back in the day before there was internet, there used to be a popular playoff system that said to play on a team that failed to cover its last game, with the theory being that the team would be undervalued following a ATS loss yet was obviously still a good team since these are the playoffs after all. As so oftentimes happens with systems like that though, the public gets wind of it and all of a sudden, the contrarians become the mainstream. Nowadays, if a playoff team loses its last game ATS, it can be taken at face value as a sign that the team may be vulnerable, especially at home where it is usually asked to give more points (or it gets fewer points as an underdog). Qualifier: San Francisco -3½ at Atlanta.

Play on any road playoff team that won on the road in the previous week (21-12, 63.6% ATS since 2005): It is supposed to be hard to win on the road during the playoffs, as road teams are the lower seed after all, but apparently once a team does win on the road it becomes easier to repeat the performance. That could be the reason why so many wild cards have made Super Bowl runs in recent years. This angle won again last week with Seattle +2½ and it has another qualifier this week. Qualifier: Baltimore +9½.

Play on any playoff underdog coming off of two straight up wins (56-39-1, 59.0% ATS since 1999): Obviously the favorites in the playoffs are usually the better team and the public loves to bet favorites, which becomes even more amplified in the playoffs with so much more novice money involved. That often leads to nice value on underdogs that are playing well while coming in on winning steaks. This angle won its only play in the divisional round with Seattle and it has another qualifier in one of the championship games. Qualifiers: Baltimore +9½.

In playoff rematches of non-divisional regular season meetings, play on the team that lost the regular season meeting straight up (27-14, 65.9% ATS since 2002): A lot of non-divisional matchups take place once every four years or so, which means that the teams are usually unfamiliar with each other when they take the field. However, if fate allows those teams to meet again in the playoffs, the team that lost now has some actual game tape to dissect and can make adjustments to either get revenge in the playoffs or at least make the game more competitive. This angle went 1-2 in the divisional round, but it gets another chance in the AFC Championship Game. Keep in mind however that this qualifier clashes with some previous angles. Qualifier: New England -9½.

NBA Trends & Angles (Jan 15-22)

For the second straight week since we busted out our NBA Trends & Angles for 2013 two weeks ago, the angles had a winning, low-volume week, following up the 2-0 2013 debut by going 3-2 ATS over the last seven days for a 5-2, 71.4 percent ATS record to date. As we said last week, the volume from these angles should naturally increase as the season goes on.

As those of you that have followed us in the past know, the vast majority of our angles will point you to live underdogs and live ‘unders’ when we have total angles. All of our season-long trends go back to 2005-06 season, as that gives us a large enough sampling without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games less than ideal.

You will occasionally see angles that refer to Good Teams and/or Bad Teams. We are not using those terms subjectively in those contexts, but rather, Good Teams are strictly defined as teams that have won at least 21 of their last 30 games and Bad Teams are defined as teams that have lost at least 21 of their last 30 games.

So here are our NBA Trends & Angles for this week, with all records being for the last seven seasons since 2005-06 plus this season’s games through Sunday, January 13th.

Play against any Good Team as a home favorite coming off of three road games (83-58, 58.9% ATS): Teams returning home from road trips are often lethargic and that has been especially true of Good Teams, as these teams are expected to win and have oftentimes just gone through the motions in their first home game back in an attempt to save some energy. The angle went 0-1 in the last seven days. Keep an eye on: Qualifying plays this week as of now are Denver at Oklahoma City on Wednesday and Washington at the Clippers on Saturday.

Play the ‘under’ in division games if the home team went ‘under’ in its last four games (67-45, 59.8%): Bettors love to bend on ‘overs’ and they tend to overreact to ‘over’ streaks while hardly batting an eye when it comes to ‘under’ streaks. In fact, many are so stubborn that they continue to bet the ‘over’ even when the home team, which more often than not is the team that controls the tempo, has shown a strong propensity for going ‘under’. Also, ‘under’ streaks are more likely to continue in the all-important division games, which are usually played closer to the vest to begin with. Keep an eye on: Believe it or not, there is currently only one NBA team on an ‘under’ streak as long as only two games, with that being the Detroit Pistons.

Play on any road underdog of +6 or more coming off of five ATS losses (75-49-2, 60.5% ATS): Bettors do not like betting on teams that are not covering spreads, and when teams that have been burning money turn up as decided road underdogs, those people cannot wait to get some money down on the home chalk. Well, here is a nice case of regression to the mean, as well as bookmakers shading the lines a bit to give the ugly underdogs value. Keep an eye on: The Sacramento Kings already have a five-game ATS losing streak while the Golden State Warriors are at four games.

Play on any conference road team that has lost its last six games straight up (116-77-3, 60.1% ATS): Bettors also hate playing teams on straight up losing streaks, especially on the road, so again the books can shade their lines a bit. When these teams do rise up and turn in competitive efforts or break their losing streaks outright, it is often vs. familiar conference opponents as this record indicates. This angle went 1-0 in the last seven days with the Bobcats beating the Bulls outright to snap an 18-game losing streak! Keep an eye on: Is there suddenly parity in the NBA? The longest straight up losing streak in the league through January 13th is just three games by the Houston Rockets.

Play against any home team that has won its last three games straight up and is now facing a Bad Team (130-83, 60.8% ATS): This combines two factors that lead to some counterintuitive value, as you are going against a hot team and simultaneously playing on a team that has lost at least 70 percent of its last 30 games and that is usually avoided by bettors, allowing the books to pad the lines a tad. This angle describes the Letdown Theory to a tee, as the streaking team is filled with confidence and feels that it can conserve some energy and still come out on top vs. a Bad Team, especially while playing at home. This angle had another good week going 3-1 over the last seven days. Keep an eye on: teams that qualify as Bad Teams as of January 13th are the Charlotte Bobcats, Cleveland Cavaliers, New Orleans Hornets, Phoenix Suns and Washington Wizards.

NFL Trends & Angles – Divisional Playoff Round

Well, one round of the NFL Playoffs is in the books as the wild card round turned out to be a clean 4-0 sweep for both the favorites and the ‘under’.

A sweep by the favorites is usually a bad thing for the sportsbooks, as this is the time of year that brings out novice bettors that have not bet on games all season, so just the sheer betting volume forces sportsbooks to move the lines more on “square” action than they would on your typical regular season Sunday game.

Since these novices usually like betting on favorites, the added volume generally leads to some weak lines skewed toward the underdogs that can be exploited by sharper bettors. That is why entering these playoffs, blindly betting all underdogs had gone 77-64-2, 54.6 ATS since 1999. Well, most squares cleaned up last week with the public winning three of the four games.

The one game the books won was with the Ravens, as the Colts were a rare hugely popular public underdog. Undaunted, we are moving forward with our mostly contrarian NFL Trends & Angles, as you just know that the favorites will not keep on covering with ease with these playoff games having such enormous volume.

Now because there are a grand total of only 11 post-season games every year, it is hard to get as large a sample size as we do during the regular season, and also unlike the regular season NFL Trends & Angles that all go back to 2005, our playoff angles have varying lengths out of necessity to at least get a decent sampling.

So here are our NFL Trends & Angles for the Divisional Playoff round, with the length of each Trends & Angle specified.

In playoff rematches of non-divisional regular season meetings, play on the team that lost the regular season meeting straight up (26-12, 68.4% ATS since 2002): A lot of non-divisional matchups take place once every four years or so, which means that the teams are usually unfamiliar with each other when they take the field. However, if fate allows those teams to meet again in the playoffs, the team that lost now has some actual game tape to dissect and can make adjustments to either get revenge in the playoffs or at least make the game more competitive. There are three such rematches this week. Qualifiers: Baltimore +9½ (Saturday), Green Bay +2½ (Saturday) and Houston +9½.

Play against all playoff teams in the divisional round coming off of a first round bye (22-14, 61.1% ATS since 2003): First round byes are supposed to be a good thing, which is why they are rewarded to the top two seeds in each conference. However, based on the results of the last 10 or so years, it looks like having a bye week kills some momentum, or that actually playing on wild card week actually keeps a team sharp or gives it momentum, or perhaps it is a combination off all these things. Since the bye teams are all home favorites as expected, this angle points to all four underdogs. Qualifiers: Baltimore +9½ (Saturday), Green Bay +2½ (Saturday), Seattle +2½ and Houston +9½.

In the divisional round only, play on any playoff team that won on the road in the wild card round (9-3, 75.0% ATS since 2005): It is supposed to be hard to win on the road during the playoffs, as road teams are the lower seed after all, but apparently once a team does win on the road it becomes easier to repeat the performance. That could be the reason why so many wild cards have made Super Bowl runs in recent years. Qualifier: Seattle +2½.

Play on any playoff underdog coming off of two straight up wins (56-39-1, 59.0% ATS since 1999): Obviously the favorites in the playoffs are usually the better team and the public loves to bet favorites, which becomes even more amplified in the playoffs with so much more novice money involved. That often leads to nice value on underdogs that are playing well while coming in on winning steaks. This angle went 0-4 in the wild card round, so a bounce-back may be inevitable. Qualifier: Seattle +2½.

Play against playoff favorites that have quarterbacks making their first career playoff start (10-5, 66.7% ATS since 2002): This angle makes perfect sense, as experience if very important in the post-season and quarterbacks that have never been there before are more prone to make mistakes, especially early in games. This angle had been 10-3 ATS until the wild card round when Matt Schaub and Russell Wilson bucked the trend. It has one more chance to cash this season this week by fading Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers. Qualifier: Green Bay +2½ (Saturday).

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